I track tourney history and how seeds typically do. Thought I'd share a few things I noticed as I update my records.
Obviously, the big guys did not fair well this year.
1 seeds win on average 13.4 games a year. This year they won 5 (37%)
1 & 2's combined win on average 22.8 games a year. This year they won 11 (48%)
1 & 2's combine for 4.5 of the Elite Eight teams per year. This year it was only Texas (22%)
Over a 2 year span. 5.5 1-seeds will make the Elite Eight. 2022 KU was the only 1 of the 8 (18%)
The final four has on average 2.946 1-3 seeds. This year there are zero.
The early upsets we did see were not the ones you typically see. They were either big or didn't happen.
Seeds 15-16 (teams that play 1-2 first round) win on average 0.4 games a year. This year they won 3 (750%)
Seeds 10-14 (teams that play 3-7 first round) win on average 8.8 games a year. This year they won 3 (34%)
Double digit seeds on average win 9.2 games a year. This year they won 6 (65%)
Since 3-7 did much better in the first round, it made their win totals much higher.
3-7's win 25.7 games a year. This year they've won 35 and will add at least 1 more (140%), possibly 3 (148%)
8/9's win 1.27 games a year after the first round. This year they've won 4 (315%), and FAU could win up to 2 more (472%)
Redemption year for 5 Seeds
The 12 over 5 upset used to be all the rage (1.43/year). 5 seeds went 4-0 in the first round.
SDSU and Miami were the only 2 to make the Sweet Sixteen, but they are still alive in the Final Four.
No 5 seed has never ever won the tournament. There are still 2 alive in SDSU & Miami and they play on opposite sides of the bracket. (4, 6, 7 & 8 all have 1 title each).
5 seeds win 4.46 games a year on average. They have 10 right now with an opportunity to win 3 more.
Championship Game
If Florida Atlantic beats SDSU, they will be the first 9 seed to ever make the title game. They would actually be the first of any seed worse than 8 to make it.
No 5 seed has never ever won the tournament. There are still 2 alive in SDSU & Miami. (4, 6, 7 & 8 all have 1 title each).
There will be 2 teams seeded 4+ in the title game. Only 13 total have played out of 74 (18%, so the odds of having 2 would be 9%)
The winner will be a 4 or worse. That has only happed 4 out of 37 times (11%).
Obviously, the big guys did not fair well this year.
1 seeds win on average 13.4 games a year. This year they won 5 (37%)
1 & 2's combined win on average 22.8 games a year. This year they won 11 (48%)
1 & 2's combine for 4.5 of the Elite Eight teams per year. This year it was only Texas (22%)
Over a 2 year span. 5.5 1-seeds will make the Elite Eight. 2022 KU was the only 1 of the 8 (18%)
The final four has on average 2.946 1-3 seeds. This year there are zero.
The early upsets we did see were not the ones you typically see. They were either big or didn't happen.
Seeds 15-16 (teams that play 1-2 first round) win on average 0.4 games a year. This year they won 3 (750%)
Seeds 10-14 (teams that play 3-7 first round) win on average 8.8 games a year. This year they won 3 (34%)
Double digit seeds on average win 9.2 games a year. This year they won 6 (65%)
Since 3-7 did much better in the first round, it made their win totals much higher.
3-7's win 25.7 games a year. This year they've won 35 and will add at least 1 more (140%), possibly 3 (148%)
8/9's win 1.27 games a year after the first round. This year they've won 4 (315%), and FAU could win up to 2 more (472%)
Redemption year for 5 Seeds
The 12 over 5 upset used to be all the rage (1.43/year). 5 seeds went 4-0 in the first round.
SDSU and Miami were the only 2 to make the Sweet Sixteen, but they are still alive in the Final Four.
No 5 seed has never ever won the tournament. There are still 2 alive in SDSU & Miami and they play on opposite sides of the bracket. (4, 6, 7 & 8 all have 1 title each).
5 seeds win 4.46 games a year on average. They have 10 right now with an opportunity to win 3 more.
Championship Game
If Florida Atlantic beats SDSU, they will be the first 9 seed to ever make the title game. They would actually be the first of any seed worse than 8 to make it.
No 5 seed has never ever won the tournament. There are still 2 alive in SDSU & Miami. (4, 6, 7 & 8 all have 1 title each).
There will be 2 teams seeded 4+ in the title game. Only 13 total have played out of 74 (18%, so the odds of having 2 would be 9%)
The winner will be a 4 or worse. That has only happed 4 out of 37 times (11%).
