***National Championship Game Thread***

Big_C_KU

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My heart says KU wins. My head says KU comes out tight because Self struggles in the quick turnaround game while UNC is loose after beating Duke. UNC rains in a bunch of early 3s and dominates the boards and builds an early 10-15 point lead. KU eventually settles in and some tired legs for UNC show up 2nd half. UNC holds on though with clutch shooting, FT shooting, and rebounding and wins it.

UNC 76 KU 72

Man I hope I’m wrong though.
 

FaithPlusOne

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I expect KU to win, but would be more than thrilled to be wrong. There’s a lot of really intriguing matchups and I expect it should be a tight game. I worry about an emotional letdown for UNC as well as tired legs and Bacot’s ankle not being 100%.

KU 76 - UNC 72
 

dukedevilz

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This will be the 7th matchup between Kansas and UNC in the NCAA Tournament. KU leads 4-2. If I'm not mistaken, this 7th matchup will tie Duke-Michigan State for the most head-to-head matchups between two schools in tournament history. Their seed is listed in parenthesis.

Kansas-UNC Tournament History
2013, 2nd Round: (1) Kansas 70, (8) UNC 58
2012, Elite 8: (2) Kansas 80, (1) UNC 67
2008, Final Four: (1) Kansas 84, (1) UNC 66
1993, Final Four: (1) UNC 78, (2) Kansas 68
1991, Final Four: (3) Kansas 79, (1) UNC 73
1957, Title Game: UNC 54, Kansas 53 (3 OT)
 
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FaithPlusOne

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This will be the 7th matchup between Kansas and UNC in the NCAA Tournament. KU leads 4-2. If I'm not mistaken, this 7th matchup will tie Duke-Michigan State for the most head-to-head matchups between two schools in tournament history. Their seed is listed in parenthesis.

Kansas-UNC Tournament History
2013, 2nd Round: (1) Kansas 70, (8) UNC 58
2012, Elite 8: (2) Kansas 80, (1) UNC 67
2008, Final Four: (1) Kansas 84, (1) UNC 66
1993, Final Four: (1) UNC 78, (2) Kansas 68
1991, Final Four: (3) Kansas 79, (1) UNC 73
1957, Title Game: UNC 54, Kansas 53 (3 OT)
Just heard on eye on college basketball podcast that it ties them for 2nd most. Kentucky and Marquette apparently have played 10 times in the NCAA tournament. I haven’t verified it but seems like a silly thing for them to make up.
 
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dukedevilz

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Just heard on eye on college basketball podcast that it ties them for 2nd most. Kentucky and Marquette apparently have played 10 times in the NCAA tournament. I haven’t verified it but seems like a silly thing for them to make up.

Yeah, you're right. I looked at the results of specific matchups I could recall off the top of my head. Outside of KU-UNC and Duke-MSU, the only other one that came to mind was Kentucky-Utah.

Looks like Marquette-Kentucky played quite a bit when the tournament really was divided by specific regions - always playing in the Mideast region.


Kentucky-Marquette Tournament History. Marquette leads 6-4
2008, 1st Round: (6) Marquette 74, (11) Kentucky 66
2003, Elite 8: (3) Marquette 83, (1) Kentucky 69
1994, Round of 32: (6) Marquette 75, (3) Kentucky 63
1975, Round of 32: Kentucky 76, Marquette 54
1972, Sweet 16: Kentucky 85, Marquette 69
1971, Regional Third Place: Marquette 91, Kentucky 74
1969, Sweet 16: Marquette 81, Kentucky 74
1968, Sweet 16: Kentucky 107, Marquette 89
1959: Regional Third Place: Kentucky 98, Marquette 69
1955: Sweet 16: Marquette 79, Kentucky 71
 

ExitFlagger

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My heart says KU wins. My head says KU comes out tight because Self struggles in the quick turnaround game while UNC is loose after beating Duke. UNC rains in a bunch of early 3s and dominates the boards and builds an early 10-15 point lead. KU eventually settles in and some tired legs for UNC show up 2nd half. UNC holds on though with clutch shooting, FT shooting, and rebounding and wins it.

UNC 76 KU 72

Man I hope I’m wrong though.
Come on, man...

You really think this is the most likely scenario?
 

Clonewithasigh

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Come on, man...

You really think this is the most likely scenario?
Flagger, I believe your boys are going to win tonight. One other thing that is imminent is the NCAA ruling on the KU infractions is coming down very soon. Before you get into full blown denial, others have already had actions taken for the same issues. KU has thumbed their nose at these infractions, so don’t be surprised if the penalties are harsher than what you are expecting. My question to you is, what will Self do if KU is banned from postseason play for multiple years?
 
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ravenman10

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Kansas has one thing all the other cases absolutely do not have though. The FBI investigation found that Kansas was defrauded by Addidas and everyone that testified said Kansas could not know. Even Preston’s mom was recorded stating this. Now I’m not going to bury my head in the sand but if an FBI investigation couldn’t uncover anything I can’t imagine the ncaa will. The only thing is the independent committee doesn’t need “beyond a reasonable doubt.” They just need an axe to grind which clearly they do have. I expect punishments but nothing to the point that which people are calling for such as multiple post season bans. Don’t see it happening.
 

BasketBallJunkie-UK

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If Bacot is healthy, UNC with an advantage if McCormack hides like he did against Oscar. Who on KU will be on Manek? I think this is another key matchup.

I'll be pulling for KU....
 

ExitFlagger

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Flagger, I believe your boys are going to win tonight. One other thing that is imminent is the NCAA ruling on the KU infractions is coming down very soon. Before you get into full blown denial, others have already had actions taken for the same issues. KU has thumbed their nose at these infractions, so don’t be surprised if the penalties are harsher than what you are expecting. My question to you is, what will Self do if KU is banned from postseason play for multiple years?
He'd stay the course and keep building.

I've heard rumors that it's a possibility that Self gets a postseason ban or two, but I'll be surprised if the entire team is banned.
 
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Clonewithasigh

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Kansas has one thing all the other cases absolutely do not have though. The FBI investigation found that Kansas was defrauded by Addidas and everyone that testified said Kansas could not know. Even Preston’s mom was recorded stating this. Now I’m not going to bury my head in the sand but if an FBI investigation couldn’t uncover anything I can’t imagine the ncaa will. The only thing is the independent committee doesn’t need “beyond a reasonable doubt.” They just need an axe to grind which clearly they do have. I expect punishments but nothing to the point that which people are calling for such as multiple post season bans. Don’t see it happening.
You may be right but I have heard that it will be one year for sure, and two is not out of the question. The problem KU has is they are the most penalized institution in NCAA basketball history. In other words, they have a long list of priors.
 

WojoRising

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Hate to say it, but I put down some dollars on UNC +4.5 and feel good they’re going to close the deal. Feels too much like it’s a destiny or something.

Definitely not trying to mush this @829305
 

FaithPlusOne

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Hate to say it, but I put down some dollars on UNC +4.5 and feel good they’re going to close the deal. Feels too much like it’s a destiny or something.

Definitely not trying to mush this @829305
giphy.gif
 

Big_C_KU

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Come on, man...

You really think this is the most likely scenario?

My pessimism sticking out. Doesn’t help that i rewatched KU’s title games going back to 88 yesterday and 03 was still very painful.
 
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UNC71-00

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Hate to say it, but I put down some dollars on UNC +4.5 and feel good they’re going to close the deal. Feels too much like it’s a destiny or something.

Definitely not trying to mush this @829305

Everyone I know is loaded up on KU. Bacot hurt foot and Love's season long trend of not performing well in the 2nd game of a quick turnaround. That and KU is just better.

KU by 20+
 

KUhawks34

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Everyone I know is loaded up on KU. Bacot hurt foot and Love's season long trend of not performing well in the 2nd game of a quick turnaround. That and KU is just better.

KU by 20+
I hope you are right lol
 

ravenman10

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Self could improve to 5-1 in final 4 games tonight. No idea how that compares but that has to be pretty good right?
 

WojoRising

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Everyone I know is loaded up on KU. Bacot hurt foot and Love's season long trend of not performing well in the 2nd game of a quick turnaround. That and KU is just better.

KU by 20+
Really respect this analysis, but UNC +4.5 is truly a lock. I’m just glad I can make a couple bucks off of this guarantee.
 

KUhawks34

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Self could improve to 5-1 in final 4 games tonight. No idea how that compares but that has to be pretty good right?
If he wins tonight he will be 5-2

Wins: UNC 08, Memphis 08, Ohio State 12, Nova 22 and hopefully UNC 22.

Losses: Kentucky 12 and Nova 18
 

UNC71-00

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Really respect this analysis, but UNC +4.5 is truly a lock. I’m just glad I can make a couple bucks off of this guarantee.

Just wait for a little while- you will be getting 10 points before tip
 

WojoRising

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We ended K's Cameron career with a W.
We ended K's career in the Final Four with a W.
We can surely put an end to your losing streak.
Congrats, you guys really proved a lot of people wrong with this championship.
 
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RockChalk82

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KU is hungry hungry hungry as ever and for that…... KU by 5-10 tonight
 

speedfrk

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Curious about Bacots ankle.

assuming Wilson on manick and macormack on bacot. Have been seeing speculation about Braun on Manek and Wilson on black to keep him off the offensive glass.

I think Manek could be a real problem matchup for Kansas.

I see this as a very even game. I think Kansas is better defensively but this could go either way for me.
 

ThePhog08

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I think this will be a great and exciting game. Braun and Wilson need big games. I think Remy has a good game. I think either can win. I will say KU by 5
 

thebasketballreasons

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A lot will depend on whether KU will play loose like they did last game against Nova, as well as the extent of Bacot's injury. KU is deeper than UNC though, so the reffing can play a role too. If both teams are in foul trouble, KU has more room to adjust. Its safe to say KU should be clear favorite, but with the way UNC is playing right now I wont bet against them. If Kevin Ollie's UConn could win it all in 2014, so can this UNC team.
 
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imajericho

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UNC 83-76

What has been missed a lot is how much UNC can play as a team and not solo ball when a team doesn't dedicate itself immensely to stopping it. Marquette and Baylor pre-ejection showed this a lot. Especially with driving into the lane and catching the cutting Manek by the rim. I think Manek has a mismatch with his height and quick release in this game.

I think that Davis and Love and even Manek are capable of stopping their driving ability. Kansas will get open 3 pointers. Whether they can them or not remains to be seen.

Love's supposed turnaround argument I think is bunk. St Peter's was a blowout where he wasn't needed to do much. He fouled out against Baylor and beforehand Manek and Davis were going off so he wasn't needed much.

This game will be tight throughout until the final 2 minutes where UNC at the line will extend the lead to the margin.

UNC is unbeatable if the 3s are falling. We had this discussion on our board earlier this year that if the 3s are falling we can beat everyone in the NCAA but if not, we can lose by 20 to midmajors. The difference from then is our defense has gotten better astronomically. Davis and Love used to get blown by every single possession leading to defensive breakdowns everywhere. Now, getting past either on blow bys is rare. With this lack of breakdown, Leaky has been able to stay on his defender and not help which has led to locking down usually the best offensive player on the other side regularly with his length and savvy.

I think Kansas has a huge hole in Harris. The numbers I looked at all point to Harris being basically an average D1 player. Why he even starts is kind of a headscratcher to me.

If our 3s don't fall today, we are in trouble. However, I think 2 of the 3 main threats will be on today and that will be enough. If all 3 are on, it will get ugly. If just 1 it will be dicey. If none, we will get blown out.

Leaky will be dared to shoot the 3 probably at times, and he can make it. If he does, Kansas is going to have to account for him more, and it will likely cause a breakdown of their defensive gameplan.

UNC has to outscore Kansas to win. They can't shut Kansas down to win. If UNC wins, expect the over to hit.
 
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Big_C_KU

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UNC 83-76

What has been missed a lot is how much UNC can play as a team and not solo ball when a team doesn't dedicate itself immensely to stopping it. Marquette and Baylor pre-ejection showed this a lot. Especially with driving into the lane and catching the cutting Manek by the rim. I think Manek has a mismatch with his height and quick release in this game.

I think that Davis and Love and even Manek are capable of stopping their driving ability. Kansas will get open 3 pointers. Whether they can them or not remains to be seen.

Love's supposed turnaround argument I think is bunk. St Peter's was a blowout where he wasn't needed to do much. He fouled out against Baylor and beforehand Manek and Davis were going off so he wasn't needed much.

This game will be tight throughout until the final 2 minutes where UNC at the line will extend the lead to the margin.

UNC is unbeatable if the 3s are falling. We had this discussion on our board earlier this year that if the 3s are falling we can beat everyone in the NCAA but if not, we can lose by 20 to midmajors. The difference from then is our defense has gotten better astronomically. Davis and Love used to get blown by every single possession leading to defensive breakdowns everywhere. Now, getting past either on blow bys is rare. With this lack of breakdown, Leaky has been able to stay on his defender and not help which has led to locking down usually the best offensive player on the other side regularly with his length and savvy.

I think Kansas has a huge hole in Harris. The numbers I looked at all point to Harris being basically an average D1 player. Why he even starts is kind of a headscratcher to me.

If our 3s don't fall today, we are in trouble. However, I think 2 of the 3 main threats will be on today and that will be enough. If all 3 are on, it will get ugly. If just 1 it will be dicey. If none, we will get blown out.

Leaky will be dared to shoot the 3 probably at times, and he can make it. If he does, Kansas is going to have to account for him more, and it will likely cause a breakdown of their defensive gameplan.

UNC has to outscore Kansas to win. They can't shut Kansas down to win. If UNC wins, expect the over to hit.

Love the confidence.

On UNC making a bunch of 3s. KU is 7-0 when the opponent makes 10+ 3s on the season. Only in 2 of those 7 games did KU need to make 10+ 3s themselves to kind of match them. KU scores a ton of other ways than shooting 3s.

On Harris being a starter he doesn’t give a ton on offense although he’s capable of knocking down 3s if left open. Where he’s big for KU is he doesn’t make mistakes and he’s one of the best defenders in college basketball especially at ball denial. Remy Martin has given us the boost on the offensive end. Harris starts to make sure KU is starting well and Remy comes in to give KU firepower and speed off the bench. Makes opponents really play 2 different types of basketball.
 
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