Best path we’ve had in a while. Iowa will be tough. But love auburn as the 2.
Love our region.
- Thread starter RockChalk82
- Start date
Kansas got a great draw...
KenPom rankings of the top 4 seeds:
#2 seed - Auburn (10th)
#3 seed - Wisconsin (34th)
#4 Providence (49th)
Iowa is a tough 5 seed though
KenPom rankings of the top 4 seeds:
#2 seed - Auburn (10th)
#3 seed - Wisconsin (34th)
#4 Providence (49th)
Iowa is a tough 5 seed though
KU has an easy trip to final four, but we all said the same thing in 2011 and they managed to choke against 11th seed VCU. You just can’t bet for or against KU, they can easily make the title game or they may lose to mid major teams that you haven’t even heard of.
I can see why you would like that draw.
I think everybody got a good draw.
I think everybody got a good draw.
I think Providence is a good example of how flawed Kenpom can be. They won a very good league and lost 4 games all year. But they’re barely top 50 apparently because they played a lot of close games and got blown out a couple times.
You don't think Kansas deserved the 1 seed? At least with Baylor, they are missing their leading scorer perhaps for the tourney, which gives them a legit excuse. Besides, didn't their starting center get injured for the season too?
To me, saying that there are no excuses to not reach the final four is saying that they’re clearly the most talented team in the region.
I would respectfully disagree- if it's all about Talent, Memphis would be higher in the tourney. Takes great coaching, team chem and talent of course to make a run. Kansas has a great coach, Big 12 POY, great team chem, plus I believe the easiest 1 seed draw..
Ha! Kentucky wins it all this tourney, def Cal takes K's spot...
When I talk about talent, I factor in experience too. I think Agbaji is a much more talented player than a few years ago. I also think he’s the only player on the team who is NBA-worthy (at this point anyway).
I’d say Self is the best coach in the region, but I think there are some teams who can match their talent. Also, coaching is mitigated somewhat in the Elite 8 with only one day to prepare.
No one seems to even be picking KU to win the region, so I wouldn’t say they’re a big favorite.
To be fair, Iowa is super hot- however, does being hot over 4 days become better than winning arguably the toughest conference plus conference tourney? Really looking forward to that game if it happens..
Always worried about the 2nd round game because of the quick turn around although Self has only lost once in the 2nd round as a 1 seed (****ing Northern Iowa).
Would be worried about Iowa/Providence but Self is 8-2 in the S16 for his career at KU. 5 of the 8 wins have been by double digits. Hell even the 2 losses in the S16 for Self at Kansas his teams led by 15 pts in the 2nd half before blowing that lead. Self will have KU very prepared for whoever they meet in the S16.
Now the E8 is where you can probably bet on KU losing. Self struggles so much with the quick turnarounds unless KU is playing against another blue blood. Even the win in 08 against a non-blue blood, albeit against Steph Curry, took far more than it should have to put Davidson away.
With this KU team probably bet on making it to the E8 but falling short there.
Would be worried about Iowa/Providence but Self is 8-2 in the S16 for his career at KU. 5 of the 8 wins have been by double digits. Hell even the 2 losses in the S16 for Self at Kansas his teams led by 15 pts in the 2nd half before blowing that lead. Self will have KU very prepared for whoever they meet in the S16.
Now the E8 is where you can probably bet on KU losing. Self struggles so much with the quick turnarounds unless KU is playing against another blue blood. Even the win in 08 against a non-blue blood, albeit against Steph Curry, took far more than it should have to put Davidson away.
With this KU team probably bet on making it to the E8 but falling short there.
That’s kind of silly. This field has more parity than any I can remember. Nobody is dominant. The difference between any 1 or two seed(other than Gonzaga or Arizona) and a 3 4 or 5 seed is very little. Take any of the top 4 or 5 seeds(other than Providence), have them play each other, and there’s little confidence in who will win. Gonzaga and Arizona are a little above everyone else, then the next 14 teams are very close in ability. If Iowa and KU played 5 times, I’d pick KU to lose 2 of those games. I’d pick KU to lose 2 or 3 against USC as well if they make it that far….bad matchup for KU. And KU/Auburn is a flip of a coin. I’d say KU has about a 25% chance to make the FF. Not bad, but not great. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one #1 seed out after the first weekend and 2 or 3 out in the S16. Arizona is the closest thing to a sure bet imo and I’d give them a 50% chance to make the FF.
They also have the 3rd highest luck rating in KenPom history. Villanova swept them and also won the Big East Tournament. No serious basketball pundit thinks Providence is the better team.
PC is a solid team - and they're certainly capable of winning a game or two. But, I don't think anyone sees them as a legitimate Final Four threat. And nobody would be shocked if they lost in the 1st Round.
Yeah, Providence ain't scaring anybody. I would be ecstatic as a KU fan to have Auburn, Wisconsin, and Providence as the 2/3/4 in their region. Pretty happy with Kentucky's draw too, other than a potential Sweet Sixteen match-up with Purdue.
“Luck” just means they win close games, right? I think he should rename it “clutch.”
Self has an insane record in close games. Nearly always wins them. I’d like to think it’s due to coaching decisions and the plays he draws, rather than luck being on his side time and again.
I haven’t watched a lot of Providence, but I thought they looked pretty strong. And aside from winning a strong league, they also beat Texas Tech and won at Wisconsin. Both games vs Nova were really close.
"Luck is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest."
Out of all 2’s it was the one I wanted personally. Not saying will be easy but better than Kentucky. Kentucky is a better team than auburn, period. Nova has our number so didn’t want them….
duke I guess would have been good too but I still like auburn. Wisco as our 3 sucks, but Providence as the 4 was great and Iowa while good and peaking, we match up with really well.
Ummmm…nearly always wins them.???
2016 - Nova Elite 8
2013 - Michigan Sweet 16
2011 - VCU elite 8
2010 - UNI second round.
those were super close games and Self didn’t pull those out…..and they all hurt bad when it really mattered.
I'm not sure how naming a few games from his career proves me wrong.
As of last year, Self had a .730 win percentage in games decided by 5 points or less over the last decade, which was by far the best in the nation. The next closest was .646.
Btw, VCU was a 10 pt loss.
I mean it’s nice to get those wins in regular season but I’d rather have that kind of percentage for the tourney.
I'd bet his win % in close tourney games is good, too. He won 3 or 4 of those in the 2012 tourney alone.
Most of the recent tourney losses have been by more than 5 pts.
Lots of close tourney wins in that timeframe as well.
But back on the topic of luck, that Michigan game was one of the most frustrating ends I’ve ever seen. KU controlled that game and was the obvious better team. And Burke just went unconscious. He couldn’t do that again if you have him 100 opportunities. He was hitting 3s with a hand in his face and from 10+ ft behind the line. Each shot was a low # shot yet he made every damn one.
VCU was the refs deciding they weren’t going to call any fouls and VCU players were hanging off the Morris twins every time they touched the ball and Bill was too stubborn to adjust to how the game was being called.
No a was just a hard fought game between two evenly matched teams and the one guy hit a huge shot at the end that sunk us. If he misses we probably win. Could have gone either way.
UNI….that game is frustrating because that goofy 7’ guy was hitting fade away shots against Aldrich all game long. Aldrich guarded well, the dude was just hitting that shot. And they couldn’t miss from the line either. The next game they came out and Mr goofball couldn’t hit that fade away to save his life(against a much worse defense too), and they were clanking free throws. Few things are as infuriating as a bball fan than watching a team go unconscious against you then lay an egg the next night out.
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Will look forward to bumping this thread. Always chuckle at Kansas fans come tourney time.
Auburn's list of tournament achievements looks like a low major's, but you get a chuckle at Kansas?
And this fool talks about self-awareness. 🤣
Yes. Auburn doesn’t try to act like a big blue blood like Kansas does. You aren’t on the same level with the other blue bloods. It’s that simple
Well, no shit. It would be pretty hard to act like a blue blood when you have the history of a poor midmajor. 😂
Keep spewing the "KU isn't a blueblood" line. Maybe somebody out there will agree.
You cock worship a coach who's been past the Sweet 16 twice, while knocking a program that does it every other year. Brilliant!
Kansas is a joke that acts far bigger than what it is. The other blue bloods don’t even respect you. Indiana hasn’t done shit in 35 years. Yet still has two more natty’s than you. All that money and effort put into basketball with only one title to show for it. And if Derrick rose could hit a free throw it would be none.
All you do is project your insecurities in every single post. It's hilarious.
For example, let's substitute Auburn's name into this sentence: "
No one would agree with the original sentence, but everybody who's interacted with your fans would agree with that one.
Poor Auburn. All that money put into athletics and a "joke" program still has more championships than your football and basketball programs combined. Sad!
You don’t have more Titles combined than auburn. Your athletic department as a whole may be the worst in the power 5. Again kansas and you are a joke.
LOL. Only losers like you, Sheriff, and Stanford fans talk about athletic departments as a whole. I couldn’t give less of a shit. I do know that KU basketball is miles better than anything your AD can offer.
How many football titles do you think you have, btw? This should be good. 😂
The ncaa recognizes 6 for auburn on there website.
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