ADVERTISEMENT

Let me explain why Kyle Guy is the #1 recruit for 2016

Mgkcbb

Well-Known Member
Apr 2, 2016
2,708
1,912
113
First of all - he's a great basketball player. Basically a point guard who can play shooting guard and be good at either position. Secondly, due to his perceived lack of athleticism, he is, at worst, a 3 year player.

So instead of getting a one and done you're getting a fringe 5 star for, what seems like based on trajectory, a minimum of 3 years.

As we are seeing with one Grayson Allen, a junior Kyle Guy is equivalent to whoever the #1 recruit is as a FR his ju ior year.


Tony Bennett has multiple years to coach him and let him become the face of the program. If he happens to stay four years, he will undoubtedly become a favorite for AA honors and ACC PoTY.
 
Here's an interesting question, would you rather have one year of Josh Jackson/ Harry Giles or three of Grayson Allen? Id easily take 3 of Grayson Allen. Very likely G Allens third year is much more productive than Giles/Jacksons 1 year but I'm eager to see responses.
 
  • Like
Reactions: pisgah101
Grayson Allen has become the #1 recruit in his class simply by staying until his junior year. Kyle Guy has the same type of effect imo.
 
  • Like
Reactions: pisgah101
Grayson Allen has become the #1 recruit in his class simply by staying until his junior year. Kyle Guy has the same type of effect imo.

Vm.jpg




Guy will be a good player. Nice pickup for UVA.
 
Last edited:
The difference?

If he's = to the #1 recruit (and that's a big if), he doesn't become that for 2 more years.

Meanwhile, UK and Duke get 2 or 3 guys that good each of those 3 years.

Great recruit for Virginia, but give me the uber-talent any day.
 
Look, Kyle Guy is the miss in '16 that will hurt the most for Purdue/IU/Butler in-state. Probably the biggest since Gary Harris in '12.

But c'mon...
 
First of all, Grayson Allen may possibly be the best player from the 2014 class to remain in college at this point in time (last year he wasn't, Tyler Ulis was), but he's way behind some NBA guys.
The top player in the 2014 recruiting class is Karl-Anthony Towns, and at this point in time, it's probably not close, considering he may be the consensus NBA Rookie of the Year after having a pretty historic rookie season. After that, Grayson Allen is still behind many other players who have already played a season in the NBA, and at least one who is about to be in the NBA (Ulis).

Anyway, back onto the topic. Kyle Guy is a great Virginia recruit. 3 years down the road, when he's scoring 17 or so points per game in college basketball, that'll be just swell, but he'll never be better than Josh Jackson, Malik Monk, Markelle Fultz, or other very elite 2 guards in the class, who 3 years down the road, could be the face of their respective franchises in the NBA.
 
I'll go with the guy with a championship over anyone, NBA draft stock means zilch to me...call me crazy I guess, if there is a message board for the NBA, you can have it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Montana81
Not even looking at draft stock I would say over a three year period you can have 3 elite freshmen contribute more than one 3 year guy will
 
  • Like
Reactions: duke4life831
Not even looking at draft stock I would say over a three year period you can have 3 elite freshmen contribute more than one 3 year guy will

Exactly.

I'll take my chances with Julius Randle, Karl Towns and Jamal Murray in 3 straight years and all being one-and-done over any 3-year player.
I'm sure Duke wouldn't trade Jabari Parker, Jahlil Okafor and Brandon Ingram for any 3-year player.

Just because the college team doesn't win a title doesn't mean the argument is better or worse. Plenty of OAD's and plenty more 3-year players never sniff a title.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheTweak
Probably?
chuckle.gif

Okay, okay, he's definitely better, but there are a lot of players in this class better than Kyle Guy too lol.


I'll go with the guy with a championship over anyone, NBA draft stock means zilch to me...call me crazy I guess, if there is a message board for the NBA, you can have it.

Has nothing to do with draft stock. Nobody has even used the words "draft stock" before you mentioned them. That said, there are reasons that some players have higher draft stocks than others. Translatable skill-sets have a lot to do with it too. As far as the NBA goes, it's how you get the numbers that you get, more-so than the numbers that you get and the efficiency that you get them with in college. Moot point though.

The fact that he has a college championship to his name means very little though. If you put Malik Monk, Josh Jackson, or Jamal Murray (as a few examples) on that team to replace Grayson Allen, then there's probably a 5% chance that Duke doesn't benefit from having one of those guys over Grayson Allen as a true freshman. At the same point in their careers (and even possibly today), they were/are better players than Grayson Allen. Time will tell.
 
Grayson Allen is not better than KAT, Devin Booker, etc.

But he has a chance to contribute more to Duke over his three seasons than any of them did their college in their one year.

So having him for three years makes him more valuable than having KAT for one IMO.

That's my point and opinion. Hope that clarifies it I'm sure it was kind of confusing.
 
Grayson Allen is not better than KAT, Devin Booker, etc.

But he has a chance to contribute more to Duke over his three seasons than any of them did their college in their one year.

So having him for three years makes him more valuable than having KAT for one IMO.

That's my point and opinion. Hope that clarifies it I'm sure it was kind of confusing.
What everyone is pointing out, and you are failing to grasp, is that you can replace players that leave. So it is really 3 years of Grayson versus a combination of 3 one and done players over 3 years or 1 one and done player and 1 two year player.
 
Grayson Allen is not better than KAT, Devin Booker, etc.

But he has a chance to contribute more to Duke over his three seasons than any of them did their college in their one year.

So having him for three years makes him more valuable than having KAT for one IMO.

That's my point and opinion. Hope that clarifies it I'm sure it was kind of confusing.

The point I'm about to make is a total side-point. It's just a bonus for having players of that caliber.

KAT contributed to Kentucky in the form of being "the guy" on a great defensive team (and a historically good team). Plus, that stuff does pay off in recruiting. When you can point to the best bigs in the NBA, like KAT, AD, and Boogie, and note that every one of those guys came out of UK in a 5 year span, recruits take notice of that, which in turn, contributes to future teams in some manor.
In 3 more years, nobody is going to be saying "I want to go to Duke to be like Grayson Allen", and in 6 or 7 years, nobody's going to go to Virginia saying "I want to go to UVA to be like Kyle Guy"

Hell, if Louisville produced good NBA players (and I absolutely do not mean this as a shot in any way, shape, of form, Louisville fans), then their recruiting would be much better. It's not like Louisville doesn't get these kinds of players for a lack of trying. Pitino recruits them every year, they just can't get those guy because they don't produce really good NBA players.

The main point that needs to be made though, is it better to have Grayson Allen (or Kyle Guy, in the point that you're trying to make) for 3, or is it better to have Karl-Anthony Towns (or we'll go with Devin Booker if we're sticking strictly to 2 guards), then the next year have Jamal Murray, and then the 3rd year have Malik Monk?
Grayson Allen is arguably pretty close to his ceiling. His role is, yet again, about to change. First he was the 7th man or so down the roster, next he was "the guy" on a pretty limited Duke team, and now he has to revert back to being "just another player" on a Duke team that will have a few very capable scorers in the starting line-up, but no facilitators.
He won't match his numbers from this past season. More offensive firepower, and plus he does have to play with the black hole that NASA has decided to name "Jayson Tatum".

Grayson Allen could very well not be as good as Malik Monk, he could very well not be as good Josh Jackson, or Markelle Fultz. Is he the best player from the 2014 class to remain in college basketball now that Ulis has signed an agent and is going to the NBA? Quite possibly, but that definitely doesn't mean that there isn't a younger, better 2 guard out there that is about to come into college basketball.

Right now, as a UK fan, I'm perfectly content with the fact that we got Devin Booker, and then Jamal Murray over 2 years of Grayson Allen.
 
Lol at UK fans in multiple posts saying Grayson Allen may be the best now that Ulis is gone. Ulis has nothing to do with this thread and I think it's debatable that Ulis was better last year anyway.
 
  • Like
Reactions: KellenPatrick
Grayson Allen is one of the more overrated players in the past 5 years. Good comparison OP.
 
  • Like
Reactions: atmafola
Grayson Allen is not better than KAT, Devin Booker, etc.

But he has a chance to contribute more to Duke over his three seasons than any of them did their college in their one year.

So having him for three years makes him more valuable than having KAT for one IMO.

That's my point and opinion. Hope that clarifies it I'm sure it was kind of confusing.

Yeah, Grayson Allen wasn't better than Booker, Murray and probably won't be better than Monk. Okay, maybe by the time he is a junior he'll be better than one of three UK freshman shooting guards (Monk) in a best case scenario -- even in that year still won't be as good as Booker or Murray.

Duke fans really want him to be that guy everyone hates, but it's hard to hate him as much as a Laettner because Laettner was a lot better than that kid. Let the truth train roll on.

Let's flash forward 365 days where Duke fans act surprise Grayson Allen comes back for a 4th year because he "loves" college basketball.

Or is it because no one will draft him for good reasons?

Yes. Yes it is.
 
The point I'm about to make is a total side-point.POY's just a bonus for having players of that caliber.

KAT contributed to Kentucky in the form of being "the guy" on a great defensive team (and a historically good team). Plus, that stuff does pay off in recruiting. When you can point to the best bigs in the NBA, like KAT, AD, and Boogie, and note that every one of those guys came out of UK in a 5 year span, recruits take notice of that, which in turn, contributes to future teams in some manor.
In 3 more years, nobody is going to be saying "I want to go to Duke to be like Grayson Allen", and in 6 or 7 years, nobody's going to go to Virginia saying "I want to go to UVA to be like Kyle Guy"

Hell, if Louisville produced good NBA players (and I absolutely do not mean this as a shot in any way, shape, of form, Louisville fans), then their recruiting would be much better. It's not like Louisville doesn't get these kinds of players for a lack of trying. Pitino recruits them every year, they just can't get those guy because they don't produce really good NBA players.

The main point that needs to be made though, is it better to have Grayson Allen (or Kyle Guy, in the point that you're trying to make) for 3, or is it better to have Karl-Anthony Towns (or we'll go with Devin Booker if we're sticking strictly to 2 guards), then the next year have Jamal Murray, and then the 3rd year have Malik Monk?
Grayson Allen is arguably pretty close to his ceiling. His role is, yet again, about to change. First he was the 7th man or so down the roster, next he was "the guy" on a pretty limited Duke team, and now he has to revert back to being "just another player" on a Duke team that will have a few very capable scorers in the starting line-up, but no facilitators.
He won't match his numbers from this past season. More offensive firepower, and plus he does have to play with the black hole that NASA has decided to name "Jayson Tatum".

Grayson Allen could very well not be as good as Malik Monk, he could very well not be as good Josh Jackson, or Markelle Fultz. Is he the best player from the 2014 class to remain in college basketball now that Ulis has signed an agent and is going to the NBA? Quite possibly, but that definitely doesn't mean that there isn't a younger, better 2 guard out there that is about to come into college basketball.

Right now, as a UK fan, I'm perfectly content with the fact that we got Devin Booker, and then Jamal Murray over 2 years of Grayson Allen.

A LOT of generalizations there, some kind of laughable. Allen won't be " just another player," and I would doubt you find anyone not a UK fan who would suggest otherwise. I think it is very likely he will be the preseason National POY, at the very least a 1st Team AA. His scoring numbers might take a dip due to Duke's offensive options, but they won't fall off a cliff like you are suggesting. He'll be a 16+ PPG guy on a terrific team.

It is possible Duke's lack of a true PG is catastrophic, that Allen's game will regress at a shocking level, or that Tatum is a ball-stopper. But that is more than likely wishful thinking, and a very uneducated guess. Coach K has a very substantial 35+ year sample size that shows that the most likely scenario, and overwhelmingly so, is that he will get the pieces to fit.
 
Wtf does Kyle Guy have to do with Grayson Allen?

Not a thing. It was a comparison that was drawn. Frankly, I think Kyle Guy will be a pretty good college player down the road. That's it. Probably Virginia's leading scorer, but not some transcendent talent.

Lol at UK fans in multiple posts saying Grayson Allen may be the best now that Ulis is gone. Ulis has nothing to do with this thread and I think it's debatable that Ulis was better last year anyway.

Ulis was one of the 3 best players in college basketball (Wooden Award Finalist, invited to the ceremony), won the Bob Cousy Award, and was a consensus 1st team All-American. Not sure it's debatable.


A LOT of generalizations there, some kind of laughable. Allen won't be " just another player," and I would doubt you find anyone not a UK fan who would suggest otherwise. I think it is very likely he will be the preseason National POY, at the very least a 1st Team AA. His scoring numbers might take a dip due to Duke's offensive options, but they won't fall off a cliff like you are suggesting. He'll be a 16+ PPG guy on a terrific team.

It is possible Duke's lack of a true PG is catastrophic, that Allen's game will regress at a shocking level, or that Tatum is a ball-stopper. But that is more than likely wishful thinking, and a very uneducated guess. Coach K has a very substantial 35+ year sample size that shows that the most likely scenario, and overwhelmingly so, is that he will get the pieces to fit.

I didn't say he'll fall off the cliff. I said that his role would change. I wouldn't even be slightly surprised if Tatum ends up taking more shots than Allen this season.
I think he'll absolutely score 16+ points per game this season, but he's going to be far away from 22 points per game the way I see it.
His game will not regress, suggesting that would be ignorant. Don't expect that unless he gets injured. His role will almost certainly regress though, that should be expected when you have a deeper team and more offensive options.
Is it also a very uneducated guess that Duke's lack of facilitators will hurt their offensive flow? (I did not say it would be "catastrophic", you're simply over-exaggerating that). Grayson Allen loves to shoot that basketball a lot. Jayson Tatum probably loves it even more than Allen. If anybody has watched Tatum play, they should be ready and willing to admit that he is absolutely a ball stopper in this stage of his career.
It should also be noted that teams today are nothing like teams from 35 years ago with the whole one and done deal. He has a whole new team, and roles are about to drastically change on that team.
 
It should also be noted that teams today are nothing like teams from 35 years ago with the whole one and done deal. He has a whole new team, and roles are about to drastically change on that team.

I'm not sure of the relevance of this comment in this context. The 35+ year sample size includes teams from the early 80's, a team from 2016, and every year in between. I'm not remotely worried about K's ability to adjust and manage, I think that is completely and totally proven.

It is definitely possible that he can't get this group to gel and work as a collective, but I know that as a fan, and all I've seen over those aforementioned decades, I am not personally worried about it even a little bit.
 
I'm not sure of the relevance of this comment in this context. The 35+ year sample size includes teams from the early 80's, a team from 2016, and every year in between. I'm not remotely worried about K's ability to adjust and manage, I think that is completely and totally proven.

It is definitely possible that he can't get this group to gel and work as a collective, but I know that as a fan, and all I've seen over those aforementioned decades, I am not personally worried about it even a little bit.

It's a little bit different though. Like I said, teams from the 80's are nothing like teams from today, with all of the one and dones. At that time, Coach K had years to fix certain deficiencies. Now he's got to work with the chemistry, fix up individual deficiencies, find the best lineups, and find the most effective ways to use his players, and he has a few short months to do it in.

Duke's team has an outstanding chance to go far, or even all the way (and I hate saying that as a Kentucky fan), but that team has its share of notable deficiencies and worries right out of the gate.

- Giles comes off of ACL tears in both knees, and 2 minutes of playing time in between both ACL tears. Usually bad news for big guys, especially guys who are high energy/motor players like Giles. K is going to have to find a way to ease him back in, and do everything he can to avoid a third ACL tear throughout the year.

- Same deal with Jefferson. A big guy with a foot injury is never good. Gonna have to ease him back in, figure out the best role for him with a mostly new team around him, and you'll have to hope he can play that the same level that he did before his injury.

- Jayson Tatum has to become a better teammate, and a better defender. Right now, he is a black hole, and everybody who has watched him knows it. Not only that, but the shots he has displayed him taking are pretty awful shots too. He's going to have to learn to become more efficient, play smarter, make easy plays, and play hard consistently, because he does have the tools to be a good defender at the college level. The extra issue with Tatum is that throughout his career, he's been an absolutely awful 3 point shooter, and that's with a high school line. Not once has he been above 30% in a season, in high school or AAU ball. Will be interesting to see where he fits in K's offense. Put him at power forward, and you may have issues because he's only 204 pounds, and he still wouldn't give you that stretch 4 dimension that K loves. Put him at the 3, and you have a good slasher, but you also end up with more defenders packing in driving lanes and clogging things up for your teammates.

- Grayson Allen will also need to have a better shot selection, adjust to a new, smaller role, and he'll have to become a better defender. Also, cut the tripping BS out.

- Frank Jackson has a long way to go to be a good facilitator and point guard. He can score the basketball, probably pretty inconsistent for now but he can absolutely fill it up some nights. We'll see if he has the point guard skills to run a next-level type of offense though.


OP is obviously right

You were cooler when you had a sig with tits in it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tw3301
All reasonable, but there aren't any teams that are free of question marks, and there is plenty of reason to be optimistic. I know (which a UK fan can relate to) that I would rather have question marks pertaining to how all the talent fits together vs. having question marks about how to win with insufficient talent.

The only thing that I would disagree with is concern over K knowing how to manage the situation. He has won titles with very different types of teams, including his most recent which featured multiple one-year players. It is an understatement to say he will be fine.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tw3301
Grayson Allen is, and will be throughout this season, definitively better than any FR at his position this year. He's without a doubt a preseason All American. I'm not sure it's even debatable - he is a top 10, probably top 5 player in the nation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: duke4life831
I'd take Josh Jackson any day of the week over the serial tripper. Defensively, Jackson is already light years ahead... He plays with a terrible mean streak that you don't see in freshman very often, and will make his teammates better. Not sure if Allen can say that. His numbers are bound to take a considerable hit with the personnel Duke has coming in. Hopefully we see JJ guarding trippy in the champions classic... Pretty sure that will erase any Dukie doubts.

Like the UK posters were saying... You can't just compare Jr Allen to any freshman. You need to compare freshman Allen to freshman A from any school, sophomore Allen to freshman b from any school, and Jr Allen y to freshman c from any school. In regards to OAD talent, gimme the three fr blue chippers every time. Total up Booker's stats and Murray's stats from first two years and I'm sure they'd compare favorably to Allen's... Especially considering talent surrounding the players. Allen will see a notable decline in every relevant stat this year... I would bet large sums of money on that...
 
Allen hurt his draft stock by deciding to come back... Especially if he plans on jumping next year. He will begin the year an AA. End of the year? Doubt it.
 
I'd take three years of Allen rather than one of Booker, even though I think everyone would agree Booker is the better basketball player.
 
ADVERTISEMENT