KU has the best defensive efficiency in Kenpom era

Discussion in 'College Basketball Board' started by MrBaracus, Feb 13, 2020.

  1. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 2, 2015
    Messages:
    6,183
    Likes Received:
    3,689
    Dating back to 2002.

    I don’t slurp Pomeroy’s pole like some of you (you know who you are), but I’ll take it.
     
  2. jhmossy

    jhmossy Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2017
    Messages:
    6,405
    Likes Received:
    15,336
    I'm not sure that's true if you look at it from a week to week basis.

    I'm pretty sure UVA was at 79.2 just earlier this year.

    Your current efficiency would be the best vs. year end rankings though.
     
  3. ChiTownSean

    ChiTownSean Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2017
    Messages:
    840
    Likes Received:
    731
    May be useful to look at it relative to each season as well. Rules being different in different seasons could cause a lower number (longer 3pt line, lower shot clock, etc). I could do this later
     
    dukedevilz likes this.
  4. Da_Bull

    Da_Bull Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2011
    Messages:
    19,591
    Likes Received:
    15,227
    Adj offense ratings are down quite a bit. Waiting to see if the year end numbers change with conference and NCAA tournaments.
     
  5. MGC_07

    MGC_07 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2016
    Messages:
    4,115
    Likes Received:
    2,672
    Probably linked to them moving the 3 point line back
     
    EvilMonkeyInTheCloset likes this.
  6. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2002
    Messages:
    5,252
    Likes Received:
    6,739
    This. Offensive efficiency numbers are down across the board. The NCAA record for lowest 3-pt% in NCAA history is 33.9%. Here's a comparison of shooting percentages from 2019 to 2020. The three-point line is having a huge impact.

    3-pt%
    2019: 34.2%
    2020: 33.2% (-1.0%)

    2-pt%
    2019: 50.3%
    2020: 49.1% (-1.2%)

    Effective fg%
    2019: 50.5%
    2020: 49.4% (-1.1)

    The NCAA emailed head coaches in December noting that scoring (-3.8%), 3-point makes (-5.7%), points per possession (-3.0%), fouls (-6.5%) and free throw attempts (-8.2%) are all down. Eventually, the players will adjust to the changes, and the numbers will see an uptick in percentages and efficiency numbers. For now, we'll just have to accept the numbers are historically low.
     
  7. KUhawks34

    KUhawks34 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2006
    Messages:
    18,330
    Likes Received:
    6,472
    Yeah it is one of the best in the Kenpon era which is great but as long as it is the best this year we will have a fighting chance in every game.
     
  8. Big_Blue79

    Big_Blue79 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2004
    Messages:
    5,955
    Likes Received:
    1,192
    Aren't the KenPom ratings normalized each year, so that you're looking at how good a team is relative to that season's averages?
     
  9. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 2, 2015
    Messages:
    6,183
    Likes Received:
    3,689
    Not sure. One of his subscriber nerds will have to answer that.
     
    EvilMonkeyInTheCloset likes this.
  10. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 2, 2015
    Messages:
    6,183
    Likes Received:
    3,689
    It’s definitely helped.

    I think the defense is probably the best this season but not the best of the Kenpom era.

    I actually view the defense as slightly overrated and offense as a little underrated. They’ve faced the #1 defensive schedule. Half the teams they’ve played are elite defensively. KU, Baylor and WV were 1, 2 and 3 as of yesterday.
     
    dukedevilz likes this.
  11. AuHoosier420

    AuHoosier420 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2008
    Messages:
    24,561
    Likes Received:
    4,558
    I really can’t believe there is people that pay for a subscription from Ken Pomeroy.
     
    EvilMonkeyInTheCloset likes this.
  12. ThroughBlue

    ThroughBlue Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2005
    Messages:
    10,117
    Likes Received:
    1,585
    Great counter punchers
     
  13. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2002
    Messages:
    5,252
    Likes Received:
    6,739
    No. It wouldn't make sense to adjust/correct the numbers from the aggregate data of the past 19 seasons when prior years had different rules regarding 3-point line, shot clock, and simply the way the game is officiated concerning fouls. The biggest reason is you're not dealing with the same collection of players and teams. I posted this two years ago, and you can look at the site and see that the adjusted efficiency numbers are still the same.

     
    13 dukedevilz, Feb 13, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
  14. Big_Blue79

    Big_Blue79 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2004
    Messages:
    5,955
    Likes Received:
    1,192
    I think you're missing the point I was trying (unsuccessfully, I guess) to make. From what I recall, KenPom efficiency rankings are normalized within each season. So a 115 rating in 2014 is against the 2014 average, and a 115 in 2020 is against the 2020 average, such that a direct comparison is not quite possible (but we can say that a 115 team in 2014 is the same standard deviation from the 2014 mean as the 115 team in 2020 is from the 2020 mean). This is how PER works, where the scale is normalized so that 15 = average for each season. And it means that prior year numbers would not be further adjusted, as you showed.

    In other words, your answer to my question is yes and we're saying the same thing.
     
    dukedevilz likes this.
  15. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 2, 2015
    Messages:
    6,183
    Likes Received:
    3,689
    Damn skippy...
     
    dukedevilz likes this.
  16. Turinturumbar

    Turinturumbar Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2004
    Messages:
    15,460
    Likes Received:
    658
    The problem though, is no matter how good you play defense, you eventually run into a team that makes those tough shots because it's just their night. Baylor did this to us when they won in Lawrence. What was it....three shot clock buzzer beating 3 pointers in a row? They were hitting some tough shots.

    Gotta have an offense good enough to make up for it when this happens, and I'm not sure ours is good enough. Eventually in the sweet 16 or elite 8, we're going to see a team hit 10 threes against us, regardless of how well we guard the perimeter.
     
    toonces11 likes this.
  17. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2002
    Messages:
    5,252
    Likes Received:
    6,739
    Gotcha, yeah, I took it as though you were implying KenPom was adjusting the numbers each year. Almost as though all 19 seasons are being thrown in together.

    But, yes, an adjusted offensive efficiency in 2020 of 115 points per 100 possessions is relatively comparable to 115 in 2010. Relatively. But it's not 100% comparable, since there are slight fluctuations in how the game was played 10 years ago- pace (shot clock), fouls (rule changes), shooting percentages (3-point line).

    If I compare the median offensive/defensive numbers between 2019 and 2020, there is a noticeable gap.

    Median Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Margin:
    2019: 104. 3
    2020: 102.7 (-1.6)

    Median Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Margin:
    2019: 104.9
    2020: 102.7 (-2.2)

    The median defensive efficiency margin has improved by more than 2 points per 100 possessions in just the last year. That is significant.
     
    17 dukedevilz, Feb 13, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
    Big_Blue79 and ChiTownSean like this.
  18. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2002
    Messages:
    5,252
    Likes Received:
    6,739
    And on top of that, you won the the only time where four 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. So that gives it even more legitimacy. 2008 and 2015 were great years for watching juggernauts go at it in the tournament. Wish we had more years like that.
     
    MrBaracus likes this.
  19. ChiTownSean

    ChiTownSean Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2017
    Messages:
    840
    Likes Received:
    731
    Right, it seems clear the what Texas Tech did last year was more impressive considering the offensive environments of both seasons. There is a lot to consider when calculating standard deviations or converting Ken's points/possessions to a comparable percentage statistic across seasons
     
    dukedevilz likes this.
  20. KUhawks34

    KUhawks34 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2006
    Messages:
    18,330
    Likes Received:
    6,472
    There is no guarantee someone hits shots like that against us. I know what you are saying and yeah our offense will need to be efficient. Maybe that is the game we hit shots.

    2012 went to the title game playing great defense
     
  21. toonces11

    toonces11 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2010
    Messages:
    9,548
    Likes Received:
    8,830
    We have to get some consistent outside shooting. Im not sure we have had a game where more than 2-3 guys played up to their potential.
     
  22. Da_Bull

    Da_Bull Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2011
    Messages:
    19,591
    Likes Received:
    15,227
    It’s $20 for the year.
     
    WojoRising and ChiTownSean like this.
  23. Big_Blue79

    Big_Blue79 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2004
    Messages:
    5,955
    Likes Received:
    1,192
    Wow, that is pretty significant. IIRC, there was a similar efficiency change in the NBA when they had the closer 3 point line in the 1990s.
     
    ChiTownSean and dukedevilz like this.
  24. ChiTownSean

    ChiTownSean Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2017
    Messages:
    840
    Likes Received:
    731
    This isn't meaningful and I can already think of some flaws with this but here are the top ten offensive and defensive teams in the KP era by standard deviation against the environment of their respective season:

    Defense

    19 Texas Tech
    18 Virginia
    15 Kentucky
    09 Memphis
    15 Virginia
    18 Cincinnati
    08 Kansas
    09 Louisville
    17 Gonzaga
    20 Kansas

    Offense

    15 Wisconsin
    18 Villanova
    12 Missouri
    17 Oklahoma State
    15 Notre Dame
    11 Ohio State
    19 Gonzaga
    15 Duke
    05 Wake Forest
    14 Duke
     
  25. spesh25

    spesh25 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2010
    Messages:
    666
    Likes Received:
    916
    Not even going to give us a ‘thank you’?
     
    MrBaracus likes this.
  26. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 2, 2015
    Messages:
    6,183
    Likes Received:
    3,689
    Thanks.
     
  27. EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

    EvilMonkeyInTheCloset Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2008
    Messages:
    38,226
    Likes Received:
    8,757
    Why is it significant enough to give a f*** about considering @jhmossy is correct to have started a thread about the fact that whoever wins the national championship this year will probably be the worst champion in years?.............................just sayin, but I AM saying, because facts.

    Deal with it. :)
     
  28. KUhawks34

    KUhawks34 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2006
    Messages:
    18,330
    Likes Received:
    6,472
    The defensive teams on that list have faired better in the tourney
     
  29. jhmossy

    jhmossy Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2017
    Messages:
    6,405
    Likes Received:
    15,336
    They’ll still be a champion though. Something Iowa doesn’t know anything about.
     
    dukedevilz likes this.
  30. EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

    EvilMonkeyInTheCloset Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2008
    Messages:
    38,226
    Likes Received:
    8,757
    Depends on what we're talking about.....

    I need more context.

    If you're trying to say "You can't talk trash/troll because your team has never durrrrrrrp won a national title", well it's too f***ing late for that because I already did...........so, I guess uhhhhh, maybe deal with it? ;)


    But if you're trying to say Kansas will win the championship this year?.........

    [​IMG]


    I assume the only solace you can take from all this is that Virginia isn't repeating as champion this year, either so you can join the list of teams whose titles are neatly collecting dust (#shelf life) in a cabinet somewhere on campus :) (again, noting that the fact that your school has one and mine doesn't, won't stop my trolls from being any less effective......or factual. SmokinSmile)


    Next...
     
  31. jhmossy

    jhmossy Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2017
    Messages:
    6,405
    Likes Received:
    15,336
    Even if it’s the worst champ, it’s still a champ.

    Also, we have the least amount of dust on our national championship in the country lol
     
    EvilMonkeyInTheCloset likes this.
  32. EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

    EvilMonkeyInTheCloset Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2008
    Messages:
    38,226
    Likes Received:
    8,757
     
    jhmossy likes this.
  33. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 2, 2015
    Messages:
    6,183
    Likes Received:
    3,689
    Bill stole some defensive concepts from Beard this season. He’s gearing up to dongslap the field.
     
    EvilMonkeyInTheCloset likes this.

Share This Page