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KU has the best defensive efficiency in Kenpom era

ExitFlagger

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May 2, 2015
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Kansas
Dating back to 2002.

I don’t slurp Pomeroy’s pole like some of you (you know who you are), but I’ll take it.
 
May be useful to look at it relative to each season as well. Rules being different in different seasons could cause a lower number (longer 3pt line, lower shot clock, etc). I could do this later
 
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Adj offense ratings are down quite a bit. Waiting to see if the year end numbers change with conference and NCAA tournaments.
 
May be useful to look at it relative to each season as well. Rules being different in different seasons could cause a lower number (longer 3pt line, lower shot clock, etc). I could do this later

This. Offensive efficiency numbers are down across the board. The NCAA record for lowest 3-pt% in NCAA history is 33.9%. Here's a comparison of shooting percentages from 2019 to 2020. The three-point line is having a huge impact.

3-pt%
2019: 34.2%
2020: 33.2% (-1.0%)

2-pt%
2019: 50.3%
2020: 49.1% (-1.2%)

Effective fg%
2019: 50.5%
2020: 49.4% (-1.1)

The NCAA emailed head coaches in December noting that scoring (-3.8%), 3-point makes (-5.7%), points per possession (-3.0%), fouls (-6.5%) and free throw attempts (-8.2%) are all down. Eventually, the players will adjust to the changes, and the numbers will see an uptick in percentages and efficiency numbers. For now, we'll just have to accept the numbers are historically low.
 
Yeah it is one of the best in the Kenpon era which is great but as long as it is the best this year we will have a fighting chance in every game.
 
Dating back to 2002.

I don’t slurp Pomeroy’s pole like some of you (you know who you are), but I’ll take it.

Aren't the KenPom ratings normalized each year, so that you're looking at how good a team is relative to that season's averages?
 
This. Offensive efficiency numbers are down across the board. The NCAA record for lowest 3-pt% in NCAA history is 33.9%. Here's a comparison of shooting percentages from 2019 to 2020. The three-point line is having a huge impact.

3-pt%
2019: 34.2%
2020: 33.2% (-1.0%)

2-pt%
2019: 50.3%
2020: 49.1% (-1.2%)

Effective fg%
2019: 50.5%
2020: 49.4% (-1.1)

The NCAA emailed head coaches in December noting that scoring (-3.8%), 3-point makes (-5.7%), points per possession (-3.0%), fouls (-6.5%) and free throw attempts (-8.2%) are all down. Eventually, the players will adjust to the changes, and the numbers will see an uptick in percentages and efficiency numbers. For now, we'll just have to accept the numbers are historically low.

It’s definitely helped.

I think the defense is probably the best this season but not the best of the Kenpom era.

I actually view the defense as slightly overrated and offense as a little underrated. They’ve faced the #1 defensive schedule. Half the teams they’ve played are elite defensively. KU, Baylor and WV were 1, 2 and 3 as of yesterday.
 
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Aren't the KenPom ratings normalized each year, so that you're looking at how good a team is relative to that season's averages?

No. It wouldn't make sense to adjust/correct the numbers from the aggregate data of the past 19 seasons when prior years had different rules regarding 3-point line, shot clock, and simply the way the game is officiated concerning fouls. The biggest reason is you're not dealing with the same collection of players and teams. I posted this two years ago, and you can look at the site and see that the adjusted efficiency numbers are still the same.

Best teams during the KenPom Era (Adjusted Efficiency Margin):

1. 2015 Kentucky, 36.91
2. 2008 Kansas, 35.21
3. 2002 Duke, 34.19
4. 2015 Wisconsin, 33.72
5. 2011 Ohio State, 33.47
6. 2010 Duke, 33.29
7. 2013 Louisville, 32.92
8. 2005 UNC, 32.77

9. 2005 Illinois, 32.68
10. 2012 Kentucky, 32.59
11. 2015 Duke, 32.48

12. 2015 Arizona, 32.36
13. 2004 Duke, 32.33
14. 2017 Gonzaga, 32.05
15. 2016 Villanova, 32.01

Bolded teams won the national title.. So '15 Kentucky had the best team. '08 Kansas had the best team that won it all... and '15 Duke won the most competitive tournament (2015 featured 4 of the top 12 teams in the Ken Pom Era).
 
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No. It wouldn't make sense to adjust/correct the numbers from the aggregate total of the past 19 seasons when prior years had different rules regarding 3-point line, shot clock, and simply the way the game is officiated concerning fouls. The biggest reason is you're not dealing with the same collection of players and teams. I posted this two years ago, and you can look at the site and see that the adjusted efficiency numbers are still the same.

I think you're missing the point I was trying (unsuccessfully, I guess) to make. From what I recall, KenPom efficiency rankings are normalized within each season. So a 115 rating in 2014 is against the 2014 average, and a 115 in 2020 is against the 2020 average, such that a direct comparison is not quite possible (but we can say that a 115 team in 2014 is the same standard deviation from the 2014 mean as the 115 team in 2020 is from the 2020 mean). This is how PER works, where the scale is normalized so that 15 = average for each season. And it means that prior year numbers would not be further adjusted, as you showed.

In other words, your answer to my question is yes and we're saying the same thing.
 
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Yeah it is one of the best in the Kenpon era which is great but as long as it is the best this year we will have a fighting chance in every game.

The problem though, is no matter how good you play defense, you eventually run into a team that makes those tough shots because it's just their night. Baylor did this to us when they won in Lawrence. What was it....three shot clock buzzer beating 3 pointers in a row? They were hitting some tough shots.

Gotta have an offense good enough to make up for it when this happens, and I'm not sure ours is good enough. Eventually in the sweet 16 or elite 8, we're going to see a team hit 10 threes against us, regardless of how well we guard the perimeter.
 
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I think you're missing the point I was trying (unsuccessfully, I guess) to make. From what I recall, KenPom efficiency rankings are normalized within each season. So a 115 rating in 2014 is against the 2014 average, and a 115 in 2020 is against the 2020 average, such that a direct comparison is not quite possible (but we can say that a 115 team in 2014 is the same standard deviation from the 2014 mean as the 115 team in 2020 is from the 2020 mean). This is how PER works, where the scale is normalized so that 15 = average for each season. And it means that prior year numbers would not be further adjusted, as you showed.

In other words, your answer to my question is yes and we're saying the same thing.

Gotcha, yeah, I took it as though you were implying KenPom was adjusting the numbers each year. Almost as though all 19 seasons are being thrown in together.

But, yes, an adjusted offensive efficiency in 2020 of 115 points per 100 possessions is relatively comparable to 115 in 2010. Relatively. But it's not 100% comparable, since there are slight fluctuations in how the game was played 10 years ago- pace (shot clock), fouls (rule changes), shooting percentages (3-point line).

If I compare the median offensive/defensive numbers between 2019 and 2020, there is a noticeable gap.

Median Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Margin:
2019: 104. 3
2020: 102.7 (-1.6)

Median Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Margin:
2019: 104.9
2020: 102.7 (-2.2)

The median defensive efficiency margin has improved by more than 2 points per 100 possessions in just the last year. That is significant.
 
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Damn skippy...

And on top of that, you won the the only time where four 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. So that gives it even more legitimacy. 2008 and 2015 were great years for watching juggernauts go at it in the tournament. Wish we had more years like that.
 
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Right, it seems clear the what Texas Tech did last year was more impressive considering the offensive environments of both seasons. There is a lot to consider when calculating standard deviations or converting Ken's points/possessions to a comparable percentage statistic across seasons
 
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The problem though, is no matter how good you play defense, you eventually run into a team that makes those tough shots because it's just their night. Baylor did this to us when they won in Lawrence. What was it....three shot clock buzzer beating 3 pointers in a row? They were hitting some tough shots.

Gotta have an offense good enough to make up for it when this happens, and I'm not sure ours is good enough. Eventually in the sweet 16 or elite 8, we're going to see a team hit 10 threes against us, regardless of how well we guard the perimeter.
There is no guarantee someone hits shots like that against us. I know what you are saying and yeah our offense will need to be efficient. Maybe that is the game we hit shots.

2012 went to the title game playing great defense
 
The problem though, is no matter how good you play defense, you eventually run into a team that makes those tough shots because it's just their night. Baylor did this to us when they won in Lawrence. What was it....three shot clock buzzer beating 3 pointers in a row? They were hitting some tough shots.

Gotta have an offense good enough to make up for it when this happens, and I'm not sure ours is good enough. Eventually in the sweet 16 or elite 8, we're going to see a team hit 10 threes against us, regardless of how well we guard the perimeter.
We have to get some consistent outside shooting. Im not sure we have had a game where more than 2-3 guys played up to their potential.
 
If I compare the median offensive/defensive numbers between 2019 and 2020, there is a noticeable gap.

Median Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Margin:
2019: 104. 3
2020: 102.7 (-1.6)

Median Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Margin:
2019: 104.9
2020: 102.7 (-2.2)

The median defensive efficiency margin has improved by more than 2 points per 100 possessions in just the last year. That is significant.

Wow, that is pretty significant. IIRC, there was a similar efficiency change in the NBA when they had the closer 3 point line in the 1990s.
 
This isn't meaningful and I can already think of some flaws with this but here are the top ten offensive and defensive teams in the KP era by standard deviation against the environment of their respective season:

Defense

19 Texas Tech
18 Virginia
15 Kentucky
09 Memphis
15 Virginia
18 Cincinnati
08 Kansas
09 Louisville
17 Gonzaga
20 Kansas

Offense

15 Wisconsin
18 Villanova
12 Missouri
17 Oklahoma State
15 Notre Dame
11 Ohio State
19 Gonzaga
15 Duke
05 Wake Forest
14 Duke
 
Gotcha, yeah, I took it as though you were implying KenPom was adjusting the numbers each year. Almost as though all 19 seasons are being thrown in together.

But, yes, an adjusted offensive efficiency in 2020 of 115 points per 100 possessions is relatively comparable to 115 in 2010. Relatively. But it's not 100% comparable, since there are slight fluctuations in how the game was played 10 years ago- pace (shot clock), fouls (rule changes), shooting percentages (3-point line).

If I compare the median offensive/defensive numbers between 2019 and 2020, there is a noticeable gap.

Median Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Margin:
2019: 104. 3
2020: 102.7 (-1.6)

Median Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Margin:
2019: 104.9
2020: 102.7 (-2.2)

The median defensive efficiency margin has improved by more than 2 points per 100 possessions in just the last year. That is significant.
Why is it significant enough to give a f*** about considering @jhmossy is correct to have started a thread about the fact that whoever wins the national championship this year will probably be the worst champion in years?.............................just sayin, but I AM saying, because facts.

Deal with it. :)
 
This isn't meaningful and I can already think of some flaws with this but here are the top ten offensive and defensive teams in the KP era by standard deviation against the environment of their respective season:

Defense

19 Texas Tech
18 Virginia
15 Kentucky
09 Memphis
15 Virginia
18 Cincinnati
08 Kansas
09 Louisville
17 Gonzaga
20 Kansas

Offense

15 Wisconsin
18 Villanova
12 Missouri
17 Oklahoma State
15 Notre Dame
11 Ohio State
19 Gonzaga
15 Duke
05 Wake Forest
14 Duke
The defensive teams on that list have faired better in the tourney
 
Why is it significant enough to give a f*** about considering @jhmossy is correct to have started a thread about the fact that whoever wins the national championship this year will probably be the worst champion in years?.............................just sayin, but I AM saying, because facts.

Deal with it. :)

They’ll still be a champion though. Something Iowa doesn’t know anything about.
 
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They’ll still be a champion though. Something Iowa doesn’t know anything about.
Depends on what we're talking about.....

I need more context.

If you're trying to say "You can't talk trash/troll because your team has never durrrrrrrp won a national title", well it's too f***ing late for that because I already did...........so, I guess uhhhhh, maybe deal with it? ;)


But if you're trying to say Kansas will win the championship this year?.........

giphy.gif


I assume the only solace you can take from all this is that Virginia isn't repeating as champion this year, either so you can join the list of teams whose titles are neatly collecting dust (#shelf life) in a cabinet somewhere on campus :) (again, noting that the fact that your school has one and mine doesn't, won't stop my trolls from being any less effective......or factual. SmokinSmile)


Next...
 
Depends on what we're talking about.....

I need more context.

If you're trying to say "You can't talk trash/troll because your team has never durrrrrrrp won a national title", well it's too f***ing late for that because I already did...........so, I guess uhhhhh, maybe deal with it? ;)


But if you're trying to say Kansas will win the championship this year?.........

giphy.gif


I assume the only solace you can take from all this is that Virginia isn't repeating as champion this year, either so you can join the list of teams whose titles are neatly collecting dust (#shelf life) in a cabinet somewhere on campus :) (again, noting that the fact that your school has one and mine doesn't, won't stop my trolls from being any less effective......or factual. SmokinSmile)


Next...

Even if it’s the worst champ, it’s still a champ.

Also, we have the least amount of dust on our national championship in the country lol
 
Even if it’s the worst champ, it’s still a champ. (Which is why Iowa is perfect for the job. We've had this conversation. :D)

Also, we have the least amount of dust on our national championship in the country lol (That didn't stop me from f***ing destroying the Eagles and their undeserving fanbase the year after they won the Super Bowl.....Winking)
 
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Depends on what we're talking about.....

I need more context.

If you're trying to say "You can't talk trash/troll because your team has never durrrrrrrp won a national title", well it's too f***ing late for that because I already did...........so, I guess uhhhhh, maybe deal with it? ;)


But if you're trying to say Kansas will win the championship this year?.........

giphy.gif
...

Bill stole some defensive concepts from Beard this season. He’s gearing up to dongslap the field.
 
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