Kentucky/Davidson and Arizona/Buffalo are Virtual Pick 'Em Games

[bignish]

I see that the whole country is looking forward to the most hyped 2nd round tournament matchup of all time (UK/Zona) when in reality both UK and Zona will just be single digit favorites.

Buffalo and Davidson are very live dogs here. Bold Prediction: one of UK or Zona will lose in the 1st Round.

 

[mebeblue2]

it could very well happen
Davidson is under seated
UK will only be a 5-6 point favorite

i know nothing about Buffalo, so no comment

 

[KYtotheCore]

Buffalo and Davidson are very live dogs here. Bold Prediction: one of UK or Zona will lose in the 1st Round.

I could see it happening. UK this year operates less-consistently than recent UK teams. We're trending upward, but lost to UT at home just a couple of weeks ago while on a 3-4 game win streak. So hard to say with this team, but I'm skeptical that we'll get very far. This team has a ceiling.

 

[bignish]

I could see it happening. UK this year operates less-consistently than recent UK teams. We're trending upward, but lost to UT at home just a couple of weeks ago while on a 3-4 game win streak. So hard to say with this team, but I'm skeptical that we'll get very far. This team has a ceiling.

UK is playing like a borderline top 10 team but this is just a terrible matchup for ya"ll. Davidson is on fire too and they're the 6th best 3 point shooting team in the country while UK struggles to close out on shooters. UK's paint defense has been elite lately but Davidson doesn't rely on post scoring.

 

[mkuwonder]

I think we will see the Zona/UK matchup everyone wants

 

[Rhavicc]

UK is playing like a borderline top 10 team but this is just a terrible matchup for ya"ll. Davidson is on fire too and they're the 6th best 3 point shooting team in the country while UK struggles to close out on shooters. UK's paint defense has been elite lately but Davidson doesn't rely on post scoring.

In fairness, UK has the 2nd best 3 point defense in the nation, and the way that UK has been playing, close outs on the perimeter have not been an issue.

 

[Big_O.]

AZ is susceptible to any team that doesn’t beat itself. I know nothing about Buffalo, but if they’re well coached, they can definitely win.

Also, Sean Miller is still horrible against beating a zone defense.

 

[Chimaera717]

UK is playing like a borderline top 10 team but this is just a terrible matchup for ya"ll. Davidson is on fire too and they're the 6th best 3 point shooting team in the country while UK struggles to close out on shooters. UK's paint defense has been elite lately but Davidson doesn't rely on post scoring.

As of a few games ago, UK had the best 3pt% defense in Cal's tenure here. Now, some of that is that our opponents have been missing shots, but a lot of it isn't.

Not sure that's the case now, but it was a couple weeks ago.

 

[mebeblue2]

UK is playing like a borderline top 10 team but this is just a terrible matchup for ya"ll. Davidson is on fire too and they're the 6th best 3 point shooting team in the country while UK struggles to close out on shooters. UK's paint defense has been elite lately but Davidson doesn't rely on post scoring.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/518

 

[RR30]

UK is playing like a borderline top 10 team but this is just a terrible matchup for ya"ll. Davidson is on fire too and they're the 6th best 3 point shooting team in the country while UK struggles to close out on shooters. UK's paint defense has been elite lately but Davidson doesn't rely on post scoring.

Kentucky has the third best three point defense in the country. They must be doing something right.

 

[829305]

I see that the whole country is looking forward to the most hyped 2nd round tournament matchup of all time (UK/Zona) when in reality both UK and Zona will just be single digit favorites.

Buffalo and Davidson are very live dogs here. Bold Prediction: one of UK or Zona will lose in the 1st Round.

Hyperbole much??

UK -6
Arizona -9
Not exactly pickems, but yes, both could lose. I'm willing to bet both don't though.

 

[mebeblue2]

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/518

 

[Big_O.]

Hyperbole much??

UK -6
Arizona -9
Not exactly pickems, but yes, both could lose. I'm willing to bet both don't though.

On the internet, NEVER let facts get in the way of a good argument.

I appreciate you OP

 

[bignish]

Kentucky has the third best three point defense in the country. They must be doing something right.

Interesting, I was just going by the eye test; it seemed like Tennessee missed a bunch of open looks yesterday.

Davidson is a better 3 point shooting team than any squad in the ACC.

 

[mebeblue2]

Interesting, I was just going by the eye test; it seemed like Tennessee missed a bunch of open looks yesterday.

Davidson is a better 3 point shooting team than any squad in the ACC.

they are 28th in the country
we have played a few teams ranked higher

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/152


BTW i stated in an earlier thread i hate playing teams that jack up a lot of 3's
when a team like that is hot they can beat any team in the tournament

 

[Hank_]

Single digit spreads are virtual pick em games and UK struggles at 3 point defense.

God damn, OP.

 

[mebeblue2]

Single digit spreads are virtual pick em games and UK struggles at 3 point defense.

God damn, OP.

yep, UK is only ranked 5th best in the country at defending the 3

 

[ThroughBlue]

Single digit spreads are virtual pick em games and UK struggles at 3 point defense.

God damn, OP.

Link to UK struggling defending the 3?

 

[Hank_]

Link to UK struggling defending the 3?

Sure.

https://study.com/academy/lesson/how-to-use-context-to-determine-the-meaning-of-words.html

 

[RR30]

Interesting, I was just going by the eye test; it seemed like Tennessee missed a bunch of open looks yesterday.

Davidson is a better 3 point shooting team than any squad in the ACC.

In theory they aren't the best at defending the three point line. Especially with guys running off of screens. However UK having 8 of their 9 rotation players being >6'5 with big wingspans really helps.
Tennessee shot well yesterday from deep, but they also had a ridiculous bank shot from a corner three and hit a couple of real tough ones.
I agree with you overall though. Davidson is gonna be a tough matchup for UK.

 

[USMC Cat]

Well....

Kentucky has won 7 of their last 8 games (beating 5 tournament teams in the process), with their only loss being @Florida.

I think I'll take my chances.

 

[mebeblue2]

In theory they aren't the best at defending the three point line. Especially with guys running off of screens. However UK having 8 of their 9 rotation players being >6'5 with big wingspans really helps.
Tennessee shot well yesterday from deep, but they also had a ridiculous bank shot from a corner three and hit a couple of real tough ones.
I agree with you overall though. Davidson is gonna be a tough matchup for UK.

UT shot 37% from 3 against UK
strange stat they only shot 37.1% total FG percentage

 

[uncfan in ky]

Too be fair to the OP, opponents did make 260 3s against UK this year. That is 2nd most in the top 50 top 3 point defensive teams. They also had A LOT of 3s shot against them, SEC teams like auburn & Florida shoot a crazy amount of 3s.

 

[Kevin Bryan]

They better make a lot of those 3s, because UK is going to own the glass. Also, all of the 5/12 match-ups are single digit lines.

 

[DuckDuckGoose00]

I see that the whole country is looking forward to the most hyped 2nd round tournament matchup of all time (UK/Zona) when in reality both UK and Zona will just be single digit favorites.

Buffalo and Davidson are very live dogs here. Bold Prediction: one of UK or Zona will lose in the 1st Round.

I don't think its that bold, I kind of expect one to lose, which would suck. I'll be there in Boise and really hoping to see that matchup

 

[bignish]

Single digit spreads are virtual pick em games and UK struggles at 3 point defense.

God damn, OP.

I meant more in how I expect these games to actually go, not what Vegas is setting the line at. For instance, KenPom only predicts a 3 point UK win and a 6 point Zona win.

 

[USMC Cat]

Too be fair to the OP, opponents did make 260 3s against UK this year. That is 2nd most in the top 50 top 3 point defensive teams. They also had A LOT of 3s shot against them, SEC teams like auburn & Florida shoot a crazy amount of 3s.

That's generally the case when your whole lineup is 6'6" and above.

Teams in college generally aren't able to compete with that length anywhere, but especially, down low.

 

[Quavarius]

I meant more in how I expect these games to actually go, not what Vegas is setting the line at. For instance, KenPom only predicts a 3 point UK win and a 6 point Zona win.

Gotta link to the KenPom predictions?

 

[uncfan in ky]

That's generally the case when your whole lineup is 6'6" and above.

Teams in college generally aren't able to compete with that length anywhere, but especially, down low.

I’m pretty sure teams have competed just fine this year against that length.

 

[ChiTownSean]

Kentucky is first in Sagarin's 'recent' metric and Arizona is fourth. Two teams trending way up could meet... or not

 

[bignish]

Gotta link to the KenPom predictions?

You have to pay for the subscription to see it. Someone else who's a paid subscriber can confirm those spreads though to back me up.

 

[ChiTownSean]

Can confirm UK projected to win by 3 and Arizona to win by 6 on KP

 

[Quavarius]

You have to pay for the subscription to see it. Someone else who's a paid subscriber can confirm those spreads though to back me up.

Awe damn. Ok. Does he do Round by round or is it just one round at a time with his predictions?

 

[bignish]

Awe damn. Ok. Does he do Round by round or is it just one round at a time with his predictions?

One round at a time since matchups have to be determined for this tournament but he posts projections for all the regular season games in advance.

 

[Quavarius]

One round at a time since matchups have to be determined for this tournament but he posts projections for all the regular season games in advance.

Thanks

 

[RR30]

Kenpom is a great deal if you love analytics and college basketball.

 

[CB3UK]

Y all are over thinking it. Come Saturday it'll be UK-Zona.

 

[BC_in_06]

I’m pretty sure teams have competed just fine this year against that length.

Yeah that had a lot more to do with our offense being paraplegic most of the season than teams competing well against our length on Defense.

 

[Rhavicc]

Interesting, I was just going by the eye test; it seemed like Tennessee missed a bunch of open looks yesterday.

Davidson is a better 3 point shooting team than any squad in the ACC.

Some Tennessee players found open shots, some didn't. That was a byproduct of Tennessee having Grant Williams (SEC POY) and Admiral Schofield (Human Bear-man) in their frontcourt. Kentucky would double the post a lot in that game. Davidson is very good, but they do not have frontcourt players half as good as those two.

 

[Rhavicc]

Kentucky is first in Sagarin's 'recent' metric and Arizona is fourth. Two teams trending way up could meet... or not

I actually didn't know this was a thing. I've wondered if there was a computer model that measured recent performance, and I figured Kentucky would rank highly in that regard. Glad that they're grading out as top in the country there, but I really want them to prove it on the court.