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History says one of these 12 will win it all

jhmossy

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Aug 9, 2017
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Every year since 2004, the eventual national champion has been ranked no lower than No. 12 in that season’s week six AP poll. Naturally, the eventual national champion tends to be highly ranked in any given week, but the week six poll in particular has, over the last 14 years, proven to be better than the rest all the way to Selection Sunday.

1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Tennessee
4. Gonzaga
5. Michigan
6. Virginia
7. Nevada
8. Auburn
9. Michigan State
10. Florida State
11. Texas Tech
12. North Carolina

https://johngasaway.com/2018/12/10/history-says-one-of-these-12-teams-will-win-it-all/
 
Every year since 2004, the eventual national champion has been ranked no lower than No. 12 in that season’s week six AP poll. Naturally, the eventual national champion tends to be highly ranked in any given week, but the week six poll in particular has, over the last 14 years, proven to be better than the rest all the way to Selection Sunday.

1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Tennessee
4. Gonzaga
5. Michigan
6. Virginia
7. Nevada
8. Auburn
9. Michigan State
10. Florida State
11. Texas Tech
12. North Carolina

https://johngasaway.com/2018/12/10/history-says-one-of-these-12-teams-will-win-it-all/

Duke will have played 6 of the 12 before the NCAA Tournament! (and will have played them 8 times).

Ship that trophy to Durham!

UNC at 12th is a head scratcher.
 
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Duke will have played 6 of the 12 before the NCAA Tournament! (and will have played them 8 times).

Ship that trophy to Durham!

UNC at 12th is a head scratcher.

Yeah that's a really impressive schedule. I am so disappointed with UVA's NCSOS this year. We'll still play 3 of those teams for 4 total games but it should be better imo
 
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Every year since 2004, the eventual national champion has been ranked no lower than No. 12 in that season’s week six AP poll. Naturally, the eventual national champion tends to be highly ranked in any given week, but the week six poll in particular has, over the last 14 years, proven to be better than the rest all the way to Selection Sunday.

1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Tennessee
4. Gonzaga
5. Michigan
6. Virginia
7. Nevada
8. Auburn
9. Michigan State
10. Florida State
11. Texas Tech
12. North Carolina

https://johngasaway.com/2018/12/10/history-says-one-of-these-12-teams-will-win-it-all/

Interesting cutoff. So what was 2003 Cuse ranked in week 6?
 
I love my UNC TAR HEELS!

!!!!!!!!!!!!! GO TAR HEELS !!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Every year since 2004, the eventual national champion has been ranked no lower than No. 12 in that season’s week six AP poll. Naturally, the eventual national champion tends to be highly ranked in any given week, but the week six poll in particular has, over the last 14 years, proven to be better than the rest all the way to Selection Sunday.

1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Tennessee
4. Gonzaga
5. Michigan
6. Virginia
7. Nevada
8. Auburn
9. Michigan State
10. Florida State
11. Texas Tech
12. North Carolina

https://johngasaway.com/2018/12/10/history-says-one-of-these-12-teams-will-win-it-all/

Its actually in all likelihood down to just these schools according to history

1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Michigan
4. Michigan State
5. North Carolina

New schools don't win championships anymore in either sport.
 
Every year since 2004, the eventual national champion has been ranked no lower than No. 12 in that season’s week six AP poll. Naturally, the eventual national champion tends to be highly ranked in any given week, but the week six poll in particular has, over the last 14 years, proven to be better than the rest all the way to Selection Sunday.

1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Tennessee
4. Gonzaga
5. Michigan
6. Virginia
7. Nevada
8. Auburn
9. Michigan State
10. Florida State
11. Texas Tech
12. North Carolina

https://johngasaway.com/2018/12/10/history-says-one-of-these-12-teams-will-win-it-all/

Per Kenpom, the worst O to win it is 39 and the worst D to win one is 21. Several of those teams don’t fit that criteria.
 
But they could by year end.

They could and any list right now is idiotic. I don’t think Nevada and Gonzaga will have a good enough D. They have been tailspinning in that regard. However, like you said, long season to go to correct it. There are only like 6-8 teams every year based on stats capable of winning it.
 
I don't think a midseason list that has been right 14 years in a row is necessarily idiotic. Using end of the year statistics right now seems to fit that bill, though.

And to be clear, the statistic doesn't say every team on the list has a chance of winning. Just that if you're not on the list, you don't have a chance.
 
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Here's the likelihood I see of contenders taking it all:

Duke: 20%
Michigan: 20%
Kansas: 15%
Tennessee: 10%
Gonzaga: 10%
Virginia: 5%

Field: 20%
 
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I don't think a midseason list that has been right 14 years in a row is necessarily idiotic. Using end of the year statistics right now seems to fit that bill, though.

And to be clear, the statistic doesn't say every team on the list has a chance of winning. Just that if you're not on the list, you don't have a chance.

I could throw 3-4 teams with better stats that could be corrected by tournament time right now than Nevada and Gonzaga. Gonzaga is in the 50s on defense. No chance of winning if that continues.
 
I like the KenPom rankings, but sometimes I think we put too much stock into them, especially this early in the season.

In late January of 2015, Duke's defense was ranked 61st - by season's end, we were 11th. Just last January, Duke's defensive efficiency was ranked 108th by KenPom! 100.4 points per 100 possessions. By year's end, Duke finished at 93.6 points per 100 poss, which was #9 in the country. Quite a jump! Certainly switching to a zone was the main factor. But I feel like like there are major, major changes to his rankings that occur before and after the NCAA Tournament.
 
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I am saying there are more teams by the end of the season that would be capable of winning if they had the stats. That list isn’t an end all be all.

Absolutely, it's possible. The point is that it hasn't happened in 14 years. In every year since 2004, if you aren't on that list, you're not winning.
 
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I like the KenPom rankings, but sometimes I think we put too much stock into them, especially this early in the season.

In late January of 2015, Duke's defense was ranked 61st - by season's end, we were 11th. Just last January, Duke's defensive efficiency was ranked 108th by KenPom! 100.4 points per 100 possessions. By year's end, Duke finished at 93.6 points per 100 poss, which was #9 in the country. Quite a jump! Certainly switching to a zone was the main factor. But I feel like like there are major, major changes to his rankings that occur before and after the NCAA Tournament.

One Kenpom statistic I do like, though, is every team that finished the season in top 5 on both O and D has won the championship.
 
One Kenpom statistic I do like, though, is every team that finished the season in top 5 on both O and D has won the championship.

Wow! Top 5 offense and defense? How often has that happened? Those have to be some truly special teams. Duke fits that criteria for now, not sure if we'll retain top 5. But I feel comfortable that we'll be at least top 10 in both categories.
 
Wow! Top 5 offense and defense? How often has that happened? Those have to be some truly special teams. Duke fits that criteria for now, not sure if we'll retain top 5. But I feel comfortable that we'll be at least top 10 in both categories.

That's why I like this statistic :)

I believe it's only happened three times. Duke was one of those, in 2010. I can't remember the other 2.

Edit: Villanova in 2016 and Kansas in 2008 were the other two. Also, I should clarify that the statistic is since 2006. In 2005, there were two teams that finished top 5 in both, and somehow only one of them won the championship.
 
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Okay, here are the numbers, if I'm looking at it correctly. The last three teams to achieve this feat won the title. Only had 4 teams accomplish this in this last 13 years. So not a guarantee, but still pretty good odds. 4 out of 9 ain't bad.

2002- Duke: #1 Offense, #1 Defense
2003- Kentucky: #5 Offense, #4 Defense
2004- Duke: #2 Offense, #3 Defense
2005- UNC: #2 Offense, #5 Defense
2005- Illinois: #3 Offense, #4 Defense
2007- UNC: #3 Offense, #4 Defense
2008- Kansas: #2 Offense, #1 Defense
2010- Duke: #1 Offense, #5 Defense
2016- Villanova: #Offense, #5 Defense
 
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