I am contemplating (14) Old Dominion over Purdue and (13) Northeastern over Kansas. I'm not buying K State falling to UC Irvine, too many pundits are picking that one.
What about you guys?
What about you guys?
Highest ranked team you have advancing past the round of 64?
- Thread starter Monorojo
- Start date
Liberty and UC Irvine. Book em.
I don't think Murray State is big enough on the interior to beat Marquette..
I don't think Murray State is big enough on the interior to beat Marquette..
Haven't filled out a bracket yet, but I think Yale or Old Dominion, both 14 seeds, are good enough to win.
Every year I’m tempted to go near-chalk, then all hell breaks loose.
Definitely agree on Yale. Would appreciate hearing if you have further thoughts on ODU. I've watched them a few times and each time they really struggled to score (metrics back that up). Unless Edwards is hobbled you're going to need to score to beat Purdue IMO. Are you thinking their D is good enough that they can win a grinder against Purdue?
Statistically speaking, all hell is bound to break loose, your best chance of success is having the least damaged bracket at the end of it all rather than trying to predict the mayhem. Heres a scenario, lets assume all 12-5 matchups have a 75% chance of the 5 winning and 25% chance of the 12 winning. You know a 12 is in all likelihood going to take 1 of these 4 games, but trying to figure out which one leaves you highly vulnerable to going 2-2 in these matchups, going chalk across the board gives you the highest chance at holding a .750 win pct in these matchups and also keeps you in play for all 4. If multiple 12s win there is likely to be 1 or 2 people out of 50 that guessed them all correct but someone with that kind of strategy likely rolled the dice aggressively elsewhere and will pay for it.
The goal of a bracket IMO is to play probabilities to have a chance at the end of the first weekend, and the best opportunity for that IMO is heavy chalk in round 1 unless analytics sites like Kenpom are screaming that a double digit seed has been lowballed. Its best to not chase Cinderella and try to guess the next Loyola, but rather to figure out if you're taking Duke, or if you believe UNC/Gonzaga/Tennessee/MSU has a chance to take them out. If you're taking Duke you have to hit almost everywhere else.
I like to watch mid-majors, but I will confess I haven't watched ODU this year. Looking at their efficiency numbers, nothing jumps out, so that potential upset is probably a stretch. Guess I was just thinking back to the OOC season where they beat VCU and Syracuse... and I never really liked Purdue as a 3 seed.
That's fair. Cuse had some struggles early in the year so I was able to explain that one away I guess. I agree with you that the one that did jump out to me was the VCU win. Seems like a very good win unless there were injuries/foul trouble/some other explanation. I haven't had time to dig into that game yet.
Do you put any stock in their conference winning 5 straight opening round games? ConfUSA has done that. I give that some weight.
If a few of those times it had been ODU (or the ODU coach) then I'd be inclined to. Then it would indicate he knows how to prepare given 4-5 days leading up to the tournament. I guess there is the possibility it indicates that the C-USA is under-rated, but I think more likely it's just small sample size randomness.
This is 100% correct, but I still ignore it because I find it so boring to create a bracket like that. And over the years I've decided my bracket is more about fun than about giving myself the best chance to win.
I probably won’t have any seed below 12 advancing, but if I did I think it would be Yale.
I honest to God can't see Maryland winning its 1st round game no matter who they play.
They have an NBA prospect guard and the Ivies notoriously play a disciplined brand of basketball that can shorten the game and maximize mistakes, that combined with the anxiety a higher seed experiences when they cant pull away from a much lower seed is a recipe for an upset. Also LSU is a little overseeded and dealing with adversity, they are also a program that is not routinely on such a high seed line which means no one in that locker room knows how to deal with tournament expectations, I would not be surprised if Yale took them out at all.
LSU has problems no doubt and looks like Wade is not going to Coach them which is cause for concern. Yale is a pretty good team and the two teams offensive and defensive numbers are very similar with LSU just slightly better on both sides.
If Yale is going to play that fast pace pushing the ball against any other team I'd probably take them but LSU is the last team they want to play fast pace with. They are more athletic and have much more depth than Yale. Not saying Yale can't win because they can but just not sure LSU is the team they want to play fast pace with.
My shot teams are Wofford and UC Irvine.
Exactly. I don’t see it. Only way I see LSU losing this is if the refs call the game completely one sided. They should OWN the boards.
Okay, I've finalized my bracket. Here's what I got:
East
14 Yale: Sweet 16
11 Belmont: Round of 32
West
12 Murray State: Round of 32
South
12 Oregon: Round of 32
Midwest
13 Northeastern: Round of 32
East
14 Yale: Sweet 16
11 Belmont: Round of 32
West
12 Murray State: Round of 32
South
12 Oregon: Round of 32
Midwest
13 Northeastern: Round of 32
I could actually see Maryland making it to the sweet 16, I don't think Belmont wins that game
I've been going back-and-forth between the LSU-Yale and Maryland-Belmont games. I think anyone of those 4 teams could realistically advance to the Sweet 16. Very tough games to pick.
Agree with this, that pod is very tough. The other pod I found most challenging was Auburn/NMSU/Kansas/Northeastern. In both cases I figured that if I'm having that much trouble deciding I may as well just take the teams I want to cheer for. So I have all upsets in the first rounds in those two pods and then Belmont and New Mexico State advancing to the Sweet Sixteen.
And you wonder why I always come last in all my bracket pools!
KU almost lost to NM St in non con. They’re pretty solid. Better than your average 12 I think.
Don't feel like putting $25 on it?
https://forums.rivals.com/threads/rivals-bracket-challenge.871364/
I wasn't going to do it this year, but you're very persuasive. I'm in.
