I'm gonna say "no" to San Fran. They are just less bad than the rest, but they're not a good team. They haven't played anybody outside of Gonzaga and St Mary's, and they're 0-4 in those games. They wouldn't finish in the top 2/3 of any major conference.
They lost to St. Mary's twice by a combined 7 points. They easily could have won both games. SMC is probably the better squad. But, the gap isn't that large. They're fairly evenly matched.
USF doesn't have any top 40 wins. That's their downfall. But, look at their record against teams ranked between 40-100 - and compare that to a few power schools that are just on the wrong side of the bubble (supposedly schools they're stealing a bid from).
Record versus teams ranked between 40-100
San Francisco: 9-2
Indiana: 5-5
Florida: 4-3
USF is way more consistent. The analytics are in their favor. And honestly, I think the eye test is, as well.
And if you look at bracketmatrix, you'll see that there are 85 brackets listed in the composite rankings. USF is ranked 35th on the S-Curve. And there are 11 at-large schools below them. They are comfortably in the tournament at this point.
They'd probably finish dead last or near last in just about every P5 conference.
Bahahaaha. You're being hyperbolic, right? Surely! Surely!
Do you really think a team that's in the top 40 by every computer ranking out there is going to struggle with the likes of Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Nebraska, Oregon State, and Georgia?
KenPom has some uses, but it's highly deceiving when teams have a bunch of wins against below average teams.
Let me get this straight. Non-P6 schools represent 79% of all D1 schools and 25% of the schools in the top 40. And somehow the numbers are unfairly weighted???
Why aren't South Dakota State, Vermont, Toledo, Belmont, Princeton, Longwood and Wagner also in the top 40-50? They certainly have some gaudy records against below average teams. It's funny how dismissive people are of non-power schools, especially of one that has played more than half of their games against top 100 opponents.
I'll ask you the same question that I asked AuHoosier420. Have you watched San Francisco play a whole half this season? I'm not convinced that you have.
Here's a fun fact. In the last 5 tournaments, 41 Non-P6 schools have won in the opening round. That's an average of 8.2 per year - or 25.6%. So, Non-power schools represent 25% of the top 40 teams and roughly 25% of the teams in the Round of 32. It almost looks like the metrics are fairly representing them.
ISU was at or near the top in KenPom at one point this season, now they're near the bottom of the Big XII, after they finally started playing some competition.
They're actually in 6th place. So, let's call it middle of the pack. And they're projected to be an 8 seed. So, not a good example of a supposed bottom-dweller that would make USF look bad. A real bottom-dweller is a sub-100 team - and there are plenty of those to be found. There's a combined 11 sub-100 schools between the ACC and Pac-12 alone.
Good on Santa Clara, but TCU early in the season is not the same as they are now. For one, they were missing two of their starters in that game, and they also were a team with a lot of new pieces who were trying to figure out how to play together.
And you could say the same about Santa Clara. Do teams only progress from power conferences? Is it possible for mid-majors to get better as the season goes on? Just two weeks ago Santa Clara gave Gonzaga their toughest game of the 2022 calendar year (until the SMC loss). And prior to that game, SCU also beat Saint Mary's and BYU.
And you know what else? Santa Clara was missing Josip Vrankic, a 1st Team All-WCC performer, in the TCU game. So no, TCU doesn't simply deserve a pass. They lost emphatically.
BYU? Again, you're going to struggle to convince me that a team that lost to Utah Valley, Creighton, and Vanderbilt(near the bottom of the SEC) is good. No, they aren't terrible, but they are still a team that any top 10 team should expect to beat easily. Yes, BYU did have a weird win over Oregon, but that's kind of the schtick of the PAC 12, a bunch of athletic teams that are extremely bi-polar. They'll come out and beat a top 10 team one night and lose by 20 to a bad team the next.
I think BYU and Santa Clara are more NIT teams, FWIW. But, I think SMC and USF are clearly tournament teams. BYU lost their starting center after the Utah win. Next game was against UVU. Also, they were missing another starter against UVU. Haven't been impressed with their play as of late, so unless they show us something in the WCC Tournament, I don't think they deserve a bid.
Regarding their Quad 1 wins, sure. But there are Quad 1 wins and then there are Quad 1 wins. Some teams play a bunch of Quad 1 teams that are near the top of the Quad and other teams play a bunch of Quad 1 teams that are flirting with Quad 2. Gonzaga usually plays a couple games against those Quad 1 teams near the top, and a bunch of teams that are borderline Quad 2.
All of that being said, Gonzaga is a very good team and I do believe they're a legit top 5 team. But the arguments that their schedule isn't that bad are not great arguments. They're a very good team that plays a shit schedule. They do try to make up for it in the noncon, but they can't really make up for their conference schedule by playing a couple good teams in the noncon.
Once you account for the two WCC tournament games, Gonzaga will have played 16 games against WCC schools. And 8 of those will be Quad 1 Games. Heck, Duke has only played 3 Quad 1 Games in 20 ACC Games. Zags will have played 4 consecutive Quad 1 games heading into the tournament.
Gonzaga does have an advantage with all of those Q4 games. That looks to be more the works of their OOC season more than their WCC schedule. What I told another poster, perhaps in this very thread, is Gonzaga is 28-7 (80%) in games against top 50 teams from 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022 (years where they were getting a 1 or 2 seed). So, I'm sure they might drop an occasional Quad 2 game. But, they would still win 90% of those contests.
come on now. san francisco has 1 win against a power 5 team.
You do realize that USF has only played one P6 school, right? And it was a road game.
I mean, USF did beat Virginia, the 2021 ACC Champs, last year. And they are FAR better this season. I'm not saying they're going to have an extremely strong run in the tournament. But, they are capable of winning a game or two.
