Great job on all the work as usual. Some of my thoughts just for fun. (When I say “too high or too low” I mean over the course of the season and where I think they might land on KenPom. Not how dangerous they might be in March. Any team in the top 40 can start clicking at the right time and go deep in March).
Hate to say this, but I think Caleb Love is going to be a lot better this year. Love, Garcia, and Bacot should be a formidable trio. I have no idea how Hubert is as a coach, but he certainly has talented pieces.ACC
Too high - UNC, FSU (only by a few spots though).
Too low - UL, ND. ND might be a top 30-35 team.
Too High - Nova
Too high - Baylor
Too low - Texas Tech, WVA
Too low - Michigan State
Too high - UCLA (I’d have them 3-4)
Too high - Alabama, Mississippi State
Too low - Auburn
Too low - Gonzaga (I have them number 1), San Fran.
Too high - Memphis
Tbh yes. That team was good, but not nearly as deep and talented with shooters as this team. Time will tell, and I may eat crow for saying this. We don’t have a Trezz though.This is the deepest college basketball has been since 2015, IMO. Lots and lots of super seniors are taking advantage of the extra year + NIL rights may have incentivized a few others to stick around. If you look at my top 150 players, you'll see that there are 5 super seniors in my top 30.
I'm a fan of Louisville's frontcourt. Williamson-Withers-Williams. You guys should own the glass. Guess the onus then is on the backcourt. Locke is a proven shooter, but he appears to be one-dimensional. Verdict is still out on West, Ellis, and Davis. You guys already have a top 20 frontcourt (possibly top 10), just not sure the backcourt is as strong. There's certainly potential.
You're ready to put them ahead of a 2015 UL team that advanced to the Elite 8 - or the 2017 Donovan Mitchell led-team that was a 2 seed in the tournament? Not saying it can't happen, but those are some fairly high expectations.
Pitino also lost a shit ton of games he should’ve won in his final years. I don’t recall us having as much of a well rounded team during his final few years. We did have T ro and Trez, but the rest of that team was pretty average. You’re probably right though about ncaa. Soon as we start playing good they’ll hammer us like the c^nts they are. Which is pretty much why I don’t really care about college basketball or football as much as I do NBA and NFL.I don't think Louisville has a Terry Rozier on the roster either. Or Rick Pitino level coaching.
They are gonna play more guys this yr and play more tempo if they can stay healthy. Sounds like they wanna play a much different style than they have been playing. They will be a much better shooting team than they were last yr.
Not sure who the go to guy is gonna be in close games. Mack is suspended 6 games that ain't gonna help.
They could be good. If they are the NCAA will probably just ban them before the ACC T.
Well, consider this. They lost to Stanford on a Oscar da Silva buzzer-beater - and they lost to USC on a Tahj Eaddy three-point buzzer-beater. Had they won those two games, they win the Pac-12 outright. UCLA being in the play-in game was a joke. And so were some of those seedings. USC was 15-5 in the Pac-12 and they got a 6 seed. Meanwhile, Ohio State goes 12-8 in the Big Ten and they're rewarded with a 2 seed.
No matter. Pac-12 cruised in the NCAAs. Actually, went 8-1 against other power conferences in the NCAAs, which included wins over 6 schools that were a 5 seed or lower (Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma State).
UCLA returns all five starters. They bring in one of the best rim protectors in the country in Myles Johnson. They also bring in a top 10 recruit in Peyton Watson. And I love that they're some cocky SOBs. They'll probably lose some games they shouldn't, but they're going to be dangerous this year.
FWIW, here's what I said about the Pac-12 just days before the NCAA Tournament started.
I appreciate it. And no doubt I'm going to miss on several teams. I only hope to be a little better than the AP/Coaches Polls.
Hate to say this, but I think Caleb Love is going to be a lot better this year. Love, Garcia, and Bacot should be a formidable trio. I have no idea how Hubert is as a coach, but he certainly has talented pieces.
Love FSU's wings. Mills, Polite, and Cleveland. One of the best collection of wings in the country. Interested in seeing Fletcher, too. Just haven't seen him a whole lot. Biggest question marks for me would be the point guard and center positions.
Just looking at the KenPom numbers and Nova was #9 in Gillespie's last played game. So, perhaps with the loss of JRE they are a little too high at #6. With Gillespie, Moore, and Samuels, I still like their chances, though.
I wonder if Baylor is getting the national title respect treatment? I actually have them several spots lower than the national polls, so it's interesting that you don't think that's low enough. I heard Rob Dauster picked James Akinjo for his 1st Team All-American team. That seems a little generous. Never been a huge fan of Akinjo, mostly because his shot select, but he did improve quite a bit last year. Super interested in seeing how Flagler and Mayer handle larger roles.
If Obanor can shoot as well as he did at Oral Roberts, Texas Tech is going to be a problem. Love Shannon and McCullar. They could easily be a top 15 team... WV has maybe the best defender in the country in Gabe Osabuohien. Too bad he can't compliment his game with some offense. Sherman and McNeil will get their buckets. Most intriguing player might be Jalen Bridges. Think he could explode this year.
Depends on that backcourt, which is a big question mark. Tyson Walker and Max Christie will be the key to MSU's success this season, IMO. All I know is, Joey Hauser better not be their #1 or #2 option.
But.... they're soooo good. So good. Hah I probably am overvaluing them. Just really like what I see from them. Don't think they have very many weaknesses.
You gotta like Bama's backcourt though, right? Quinerly, Davison, and Shackelford. Possibly a top 5 backcourt. Frontcourt and depth is questionable, however.
If Rocket Watts plays like he did last year, then yes, this could absolutely be too high for the other MSU team. Personally, I'm higher on Shakeel Moore than Watts. Also, think Derek Fountain could have a very productive sophomore season... Molinar and Brooks are likely the 1-2 punch for Miss State. Brooks was seriously the 4th most efficient UNC big man last year. Wonder if he'll play more like he did in 2020? I think he felt the pressure last year of having two very capable big men off the bench that could easily steal his minutes.
Frontcourt is outrageously talented. Their ceiling is pretty high, actually. So maybe that merits a higher ranking.
The more I look at Gonzaga, the more I think I should have taken Julian Strawther in the draft. He's going to be really good. So much talent on that team. If this is based on KenPom, Gonzaga probably does have the edge over UCLA. I think I like UCLA's odds of winning the title slightly more than the Zags, however. I think those guys are mentally a little tougher.
Their defense is going to be dynamite. Have no idea how productive that offense will be, but there's certainly enough talent to be a top 10-15 team.
Lol prove what? You’re the one making up shit. No one is sunshine pumping anything from our fans on this board. We watched a couple exhibition games and liked what we saw. Good lord.
I’m a UL fan and I know our rosters and how we’ve looked. We haven’t had this type of ball movement and shooting, and depth since ‘14. Even in previous years with exhibitions against shitty teams, we weren’t blowing them out.I think saying it's the best team since 2014 after an exhibition is the definition of sunshine pumping. How could you possibly determine that? An average roster can look like an all star team vs a low level school.
The OOC season was curtailed quite a bit last year. That was part of the problem. The sample size was so low it was almost meaningless. The Pac-12 was especially low on OOC games as they didn't have a head-to-head conference bouts like the ACC/Big Ten, Big East/Big Ten, Big 12/SEC matchups.
I love all the responses. Good stuff. And yes, I am def just saying by KenPom. So I think Gonzaga ends up at 1 on KenPom, UCLA 2-4, etc.
Watts is why I’m lower on Miss State. Maybe I’m being too down, but he’s just so inefficient. Bama…idk. Could see it either way, but 20-25 just feels more realistic to me than 16.
FSU is a total wildcard, I’ll admit. If the wings all gel, maybe we don’t even need a lot from the centers? But I know this—Ham has really found something with the “18 strong” mentality and having guys play until they can’t breathe, sub out, and then repeat. Which is awesome in terms of setting us up for mitigating injuries and turnover and being ready for March. But it requires a commitment to it in every game, which means some games in November we win by 11 instead of 25, because we are building that depth all the way down the bench, testing out which lineup combos work best for later in the season. So we tend to be 5-7 spots lower on efficiency models like KenPom than what I think our true ability is.
Hope I'm wrong. He was dreadful last season - except, of course, when he played Duke. Love was a Duke fan growing up and he never did receive an offer from us. So, perhaps there was extra motivation in those games. I'd be more than okay with a repeat of last season.Regarding Caleb Love, I’ll believe it when I see it.
USC, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon and Colorado were solid throughout the year and were all clearly undervalued in March (Besides Arizona who was ineligible for the postseason). However, the bottom half of the league had some ugly nonconference losses and that hurt the conference's computer ratings. It also got exaggerated more than normal because of how few OOC games were played.
Lol even? No
Let's see, Chris Smith was the Preseason Pac 12 POY. He and Jalen Hill had the two highest player efficiency ratings on the team in 2021. Cody Riley fouled out in 18 minutes. Nwuba played 20 minutes against UM, a career high. Only two other times has he logged double-digit minutes.
Yes, having Jalen Hill in the lineup would have been HUGE. Nwuba isn't a rotation player for UCLA - he's a very below average big. Giving him 20 minutes of action was not helping UCLA's cause. Seriously, look at his career stats. They're bloody awful. And Chris Smith was already one of the best players in one of the best conferences in the country.
UCLA lost 50 minutes of action from their two most efficient players. If you don't think those are significant losses, you might be a homer.
I was lower on Michigan than where they finished 4 straight years. Not as much as you’ve missed on them, but still underrated them.
There is a massive difference between losing a player in December and losing your starting senior / one of the best shooters in the country a week before the tournament. Michigan shot 3 of 11 from three that night which was their second worst performance of the season. Think about what Livers offers.
On a skill basis, I can buy that Livers = Smith and Hill. The fact that Michigan lost their starter in mid March instead of getting 2.5 months to prepare for it is relevant.
Hes looked good says the reports. Pretty nimble for his size, and has trimmed down a bit. Nice combo to go with malik at C bc malik is long and lean but not a physical presence like curry.How's Sydney Curry so far? I wasn't glad to see him leave.
Still not sure if it was purely his decision or if he was nudged out. Heard anything on that front?
Yeah, KU fans are already high on Pettiford. Some think he might be in the rotation this year. Not sure there's room. Most expect him to be a big contributor starting next year though.Hes looked good says the reports. Pretty nimble for his size, and has trimmed down a bit. Nice combo to go with malik at C bc malik is long and lean but not a physical presence like curry.
Ive heard ku fans have been high on pettiford, i wasnt happy to see him leave but i get it with the guard transfers we brought in, maybe a “trade” that will work out for both of us.
And idk really how curry ended up here, i dont have any inside info.
Revisit - Biggest bust? Memphis, Michigan, Louisville? Fvckn ACC all those teams just go straight to the toilet except for DukeHere's the breakdown by conference.
15. North Carolina
18. Florida State
37. Virginia Tech
44. Notre Dame
40. Seton Hall
20. Oklahoma State
27. Texas Tech
41. West Virginia
21. Ohio State
31. Michigan State
48. Washington State
33. Mississippi State
49. San Francisco
35. Colorado State
43. San Diego State
22. Saint Bonaventure
39. Loyola Chicago
Revisit - Biggest bust? Memphis, Michigan, Louisville? Fvckn ACC all those teams just go straight to the toilet except for Duke