College Basketball Gambling Thread - PA_Panther Owns This Thread

EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

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I could post some plays from The Metrics if you guys want. I'm only playing a couple of them and only on the ML. Lots of 50/50 looking games on his lines today.

He did have a crazy successful stretch last year though with his model.
 

VulvHa

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I would take Duke (-24.5) over Army. Okay, to be fair, I have no idea how good Army is. Just think our talent can steamroll straight through them.

Feel like Oregon (-7) should beat SMU by more than 7 points. SMU has some nice offensive players, but not confident their defense can consistently shut down the Oregon guards.

UCLA (-4) is better than Nova, and they're at home.

I'd also be tempted to say Richmond (-6.5) should win semi-comfortably over Utah State. Richmond has 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting lineup. Talent + experience... Utah State's Justin Bean is an amazing rebounder, but I think USU is going to really feel the loss of Queta. They lost a close one to UC-Davis in their opener.

I'm not placing actual bets on these games, but am I curious to see how I fare. Maybe if I can predict with 60-65% accuracy, I'll consider it.
Usually, a tell tale sign of an inexperienced gambler is one that always likes the favorites and lays the points. One of the first lessons I learned.
 
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Villian07

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Usually, a tell tale sign of an inexperienced gambler is one that always likes the favorites and lays the points. One of the first lessons I learned.
True but when theres 30 games on the docket, quite a few faves are bound to cover. Its not like he liked every fave just picked a few he liked. I rarely bet underdogs myself but i dont bet every single game on the dockett.
 

EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

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Usually, a tell tale sign of an inexperienced gambler is one that always likes the favorites and lays the points. One of the first lessons I learned.
Please tell us all the underdogs that are going to cover or win.

Thanks in advance......
 

dukedevilz

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@dukedevilz im tellin ya man the key is to single out the worst teams in each conference/america and bet against em every game.

This.

Spent many a day scanning the lines to find Mississippi Valley State so I could profit off their awfulness last year.......

Interesting. Yeah, this definitely isn't my area of expertise. So, what percentage of the time do you win bets off these bottom dwellers? Probably doesn't help that most of those schools are severely underfunded and just about every ooc game is a road game, mostly buy games to help sustain the other sports.

Just about every school in the SWAC and MEAC is bloody awful. Might change gradually as there's been a push to get more high-profiled players at an HBCU school. Makur Maker and Gerald Liddell are two names that come to mind.
 

EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

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Interesting. Yeah, this definitely isn't my area of expertise. So, what percentage of the time do you win bets off these bottom dwellers? Probably doesn't help that most of those schools are severely underfunded and just about every ooc game is a road game, mostly buy games to help sustain the other sports.

Just about every school in the SWAC and MEAC is bloody awful. Might change gradually as there's been a push to get more high-profiled players at an HBCU school. Makur Maker and Gerald Liddell are two names that come to mind.
Last year up until about the final two months of the season, MVSU was a surefire spread bet (i.e. their opponent to cover).

Then they had to be a**holes and actually started to play better so we had to fade them down the stretch and find some other really bad teams to lean on either for spread covers or game totals because of their awful defense.
 

Kevin Bryan

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I'm not placing actual bets on these games, but am I curious to see how I fare. Maybe if I can predict with 60-65% accuracy, I'll consider it.
If you do that you need to be in the business! Even the best pro sports bettors rarely sustain anything over 55% long-term.
 
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Villian07

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Last year up until about the final two months of the season, MVSU was a surefire spread bet (i.e. their opponent to cover).

Then they had to be a**holes and actually started to play better so we had to fade them down the stretch and find some other really bad teams to lean on either for spread covers or game totals because of their awful defense.
I do the same thing i usually try and find at least one team in each mid major conference and fade the hell out of em.
 

dukedevilz

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Usually, a tell tale sign of an inexperienced gambler is one that always likes the favorites and lays the points. One of the first lessons I learned.

If you do that you need to be in the business! Even the best pro sports bettors rarely sustain anything over 55% long-term.

Hah. Yeah, I'm exposing myself. I've never placed a bet before, other than head-to-head matchups with friends. I know I win way more than 60% of the time there, but obviously a big difference when you have to account for the spread. On average, picking the underdog probably makes more sense, as there's always a chance they could win, not to mention they could lose by so many points and you'd still come out on top.

Didn't realize professional gamblers were only winning 55% of the time. I remember the last Jeopardy Champ that won 35ish in a row did that for a living. If 55% is the bar for success, not sure I'd be wild about my chances. I'm going to pick a few games from time-to-time ITT; curious if I can get anywhere near that 55% success rate.
 

Jaycg15

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I bet mostly football and golf. The only ncaab I bet this week were Chattanooga +7.5 and Buffalo +12.5. I’ve bet over $30k total since the last week of Oct, when sports betting came online in CT. Up ~7k so far.
What’s your method?
 

VulvHa

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What’s your method?
No method. Just look at lines, props, and O/Us in the mornings and go with what I like. Sometimes I get OCD (to my detriment a lot of times) if I think Vegas has made mistakes. For instance, I won huge on Dante Pettis to score a TD back when the Gmen played the Panthers. It was +450 before it got announced that Sterling Sheppard was inactive. Vegas left it at +450, which is a mistake so the OCD in the brain forced me to hit it hard.

Edit: At this point I do have a tendency to take the pts all else equal, but that isn’t necessarily a method.
 
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PA_Panther

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Heading into the day with a nice 5-2 record and a solid +5.6 units. Missed the early games but here is what I have the rest of the night.

UTRGV vs Arizona O139.5. The Acronym school plays four guards and they are a space and pace team. I feel they are going to hit enough shots to push the over. Also as a result though they are going to get absolutely crucified on the glass that gives Arizona easy buckets all night.

Arkansas Pine-Bluff +32.5 vs Colorado State: This one is pretty simple to me and I'll keep it short and sweet. Is Colorado State really 32 points better than anyone? They played Creighton well in their opener Tuesday. So let it ride and go Lions!
 

GE Nole

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I was 3-1 last night (but none were college basketball. Dolphins and 3 bets on the clippers).

I have three bets going tonight:

UL -8.5 against Furman. I lost that, as Furman won SU! @Villian07 what happened?!

WVA/Pitt under 140.5. This looks in decent shape right now. Sorry @PA_Panther your team looks horrendous. I might have found my crappy team to fade most games.

UCLA to win & the total over 140. Just seems like a game where UCLA will push tempo at home and get the game up into the mid 70s.
 

PA_Panther

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I was 3-1 last night (but none were college basketball. Dolphins and 3 bets on the clippers).

I have three bets going tonight:

UL -8.5 against Furman. I lost that, as Furman won SU! @Villian07 what happened?!

WVA/Pitt under 140.5. This looks in decent shape right now. Sorry @PA_Panther your team looks horrendous. I might have found my crappy team to fade most games.

UCLA to win & the total over 140. Just seems like a game where UCLA will push tempo at home and get the game up into the mid 70s.
Pitt has one scholarship guard right now, yes that is correct ONE! This poor kid is getting more pressure put on him than you can imagine. I'm seeing a max of seven wins on the schedule.
 

Villian07

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I was 3-1 last night (but none were college basketball. Dolphins and 3 bets on the clippers).

I have three bets going tonight:

UL -8.5 against Furman. I lost that, as Furman won SU! @Villian07 what happened?!

WVA/Pitt under 140.5. This looks in decent shape right now. Sorry @PA_Panther your team looks horrendous. I might have found my crappy team to fade most games.

UCLA to win & the total over 140. Just seems like a game where UCLA will push tempo at home and get the game up into the mid 70s.
We suck is what happened.
 

Villian07

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My team embarrased themselves but i had a decent day yeaterday. Ended up staying away from navy that i posted and hit byu oregon and ucla that i listed yesterday ITT.

unf lost on richmond as i jumped on the convincing writeup by a very informed poster 😉 also lost on SC, dam smucks are 10x more talented than princeton jist play stupid all damn game and have no guards sans stevenson was decent. Had10$ byu/oregon/ucla/SC parlay for like 125 get busted by SC smdh tho i wasnt on em straight up hurts just as bad. Esp when they had such an athletic and size advantage downlow and theyd just continually leave random whiteys open on the wings for three like they werent gonna stroke em smdh.
 

dukedevilz

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I would take Duke (-24.5) over Army. Okay, to be fair, I have no idea how good Army is. Just think our talent can steamroll straight through them.

Feel like Oregon (-7) should beat SMU by more than 7 points. SMU has some nice offensive players, but not confident their defense can consistently shut down the Oregon guards.

UCLA (-4) is better than Nova, and they're at home.

I'd also be tempted to say Richmond (-6.5) should win semi-comfortably over Utah State. Richmond has 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting lineup. Talent + experience... Utah State's Justin Bean is an amazing rebounder, but I think USU is going to really feel the loss of Queta. They lost a close one to UC-Davis in their opener.

I'm not placing actual bets on these games, but am I curious to see how I fare. Maybe if I can predict with 60-65% accuracy, I'll consider it.

3-1. Time to quit my day job.
 

dukedevilz

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Heading into the day with a nice 5-2 record and a solid +5.6 units. Missed the early games but here is what I have the rest of the night.

UTRGV vs Arizona O139.5. The Acronym school plays four guards and they are a space and pace team. I feel they are going to hit enough shots to push the over. Also as a result though they are going to get absolutely crucified on the glass that gives Arizona easy buckets all night.

Arkansas Pine-Bluff +32.5 vs Colorado State: This one is pretty simple to me and I'll keep it short and sweet. Is Colorado State really 32 points better than anyone? They played Creighton well in their opener Tuesday. So let it ride and go Lions!

Good picks. The CSU one was very sensible. I can understand why they may have been favored by that amount - previously beat a Max Abmas led team by 29 points and they're playing at elevation. But.... covering that spread would be challenging for any team.
 

Noahtogo24

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Terps currently are 11 point favorites vs Vermont, who is a game time decision .

By the way , not a better, so take any of my advice with a grain of salt!
 

dukedevilz

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I'll take Davidson (+7) to cover the line against San Francisco

I like NC Central's (+28.5) odds against Memphis.

And again, I'll take Duke (-20.5) over Campbell.
 

Villian07

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Duke plays again today???
I'll take Davidson (+7) to cover the line against San Francisco

And again, I'll take Duke (-20.5) over Campbell.
I found it for some reason my bs bookie dont list all the games but if u search for them u can find them as “extra write in games” i like that as well the -20.5. Young legs prob helps em to play bk to bks fr
 
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Villian07

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Im also on

Ohio -1
miami FL -2.5

to add to miss st 12 and boise st -2 and duke -20.5

hopped on mich -24 as well. Duke lookin like scrubs so far smdh hopefully this will jinx them into action. But damn gonna be hard to cover in one half smdh.
 
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dukedevilz

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Terps currently are 11 point favorites vs Vermont, who is a game time decision .

By the way , not a better, so take any of my advice with a grain of salt!

I wouldn't do that beat. I think Maryland's athleticism could overwhelm Vermont. But, Vermont is probably the best team in the AEC. They beat Northern Iowa without Ryan Davis (sick). No idea what his status is for today. I wouldn't feel overly confident in either direction. Gun to my head, I'll take Vermont to cover the line.
 

Noahtogo24

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My mistake gents , Ryan Davis, AE Preseason POY may not play today due to an illness. Plus , Terps shot like 4-21 from Three on Thursday , can’t be much worse today.

However, remember, I’m not a better .