The AP Coach of the Year is cursed. NCAA began seedings in 1979. Since that time, 24 of the COYs have had a 1 seed in the tournament. Not a single one has won the whole thing. Imagine if a blue blood had been a 1 seed 24 times in the past 41 seasons - and never came away with a title! People would be constantly talking about the failures in March!
The 17 other years where the National COY didn't have a 1 seed, only once did they outperform their seed, Chris Beard in 2019 with Texas Tech.
AP COY & 1 Seed in the NCAA Tournament.
1979—Bill Hodges, Indiana State (NCAA Finals)
1980—Ray Meyer, DePaul (2nd Round)
1981—Ralph Miller, Oregon State (2nd Round)
1983—Guy Lewis, Houston (NCAA Finals)
1984—Ray Meyer, DePaul (Sweet 16)
1985—Bill Frieder, Michigan (2nd Round)
1986—Eddie Sutton, Kentucky (Regional Finals)
1988—John Chaney, Temple (Regional Finals)
1990—Jim Calhoun, UConn (Regional Finals)
1991—Randy Ayers, Ohio State (Sweet 16)
1992—Roy Williams, Kansas (2nd Round)
1994—Norm Stewart, Missouri (Regional Finals)
1996—Gene Keady, Purdue (2nd Round)
1997—Clem Haskins, Minnesota (Final Four, later vacated)
1999—Cliff Ellis, Auburn (Sweet 16)
2003—Tubby Smith, Kentucky (Reigonal Finals)
2004—Phil Martelli, Saint Joseph’s (Regional Finals)
2005—Bruce Weber, Illinois (NCAA Finals)
2010—Jim Boeheim, Syracuse (Sweet 16)
2014—Gregg Marshall, Wichita State (2nd Round)
2015—John Calipari, Kentucky (Final Four)
2016—Bill Self, Kansas (Regional Finals)
2017—Mark Few, Gonzaga (NCAA Finals)
2018—Tony Bennett, Virginia (1st Round)
Here are the odds of a 1 seed advancing by round...
SEED | 2ND ROUND | SWEET 16 | ELITE 8 | FINAL FOUR | CHAMP GAME | WIN CHAMP | TRUE ODDS |
---|
1 | 99.3% | 85.7% | 69.3% | 40.7% | 24.3% | 15.7% | 62.9% |
The tournament results from the 24 seasons above are vastly different from the aggregate numbers. Here are the percentages of advancing for those COYs, with the variances in parenthesis:
2nd Round: 95.8%
(-3.5%)
Sweet 16: 70.8%
(-14.9%)
Elite 8: 54.2%
(-15.1%)
Final Four: 25%
(-15.7%)
Title Game: 16.7%
(-7.6%)
Champions: 0%
(-15.7%)