Brad Powers Vegas Power rankings for all 130 teams

Discussion in 'College Football Soundoff' started by Digger1, Jun 12, 2019 at 6:39 AM.

  1. Digger1

    Digger1 Well-Known Member
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    https://pregame.com/pregame-forums/...arly-2019-power-ratings-for-all-130-cfb-teams

    Brad use to work for Phil Steele and he is outstanding. While his power ranking of teams is easy to read in my paste its easier to read these power rankings figures if you click on the link. Below is the paste. He posted these last night.

    Hey Guys,

    I hope you've all had a great spring so far. I've been hard at work already on the 2019 CFB season and have come up with an initial set of power ratings for all 130 FBS teams. Naturally, this is a fluid number at this point as I continue to go through each team position-by-position. However, baring any major injuries or suspensions over the summer and during fall camp, I don't anticipate these ratings changing much more than a 0.5-point or so in the next couple of months. This early set of power ratings takes into consideration the amount of returning production, the number of returning starters and other key factors (turnovers, close wins/losses, recruiting, etc). As soon as I finish my position "up/downs" for each team...I'll post my next set of ratings in early July.

    To come up with a point spread all you have to do is subtract two team's power ratings. For example, if Alabama were playing Clemson on a neutral field, I would have the Crimson Tide (power rating 99.78) favored by 1-point over the Tigers (power rating 98.72). I usually award about 3-points for home field advantage.

    Note that I included the final power rating from last season so you can know how much I've upgraded/downgraded each team. Feel free to ask me any questions.

    Rank Team Conf Rating Last Year Rating This Year Diff
    1 Alabama SEC 102.80 99.78 -3.02
    2 Clemson ACC 103.04 98.72 -4.32
    3 Georgia SEC 93.18 93.88 0.70
    4 LSU SEC 85.24 91.41 6.17
    5 Oklahoma Big 12 90.83 90.53 -0.30
    6 Michigan Big Ten 89.01 89.72 0.71
    7 Ohio State Big Ten 91.03 88.90 -2.13
    8 Florida SEC 83.68 88.18 4.50
    9 Auburn SEC 84.27 87.32 3.05
    10 Notre Dame Indep 89.75 86.90 -2.85
    11 Texas A&M SEC 84.23 85.24 1.00
    12 Michigan State Big Ten 78.55 85.12 6.57
    13 Oregon Pac-12 78.48 84.95 6.46
    14 Penn State Big Ten 82.07 84.14 2.07
    15 Mississippi State SEC 84.77 83.31 -1.46
    16 Wisconsin Big Ten 78.14 83.13 4.99
    17 Washington Pac-12 84.26 83.13 -1.13
    18 Utah Pac-12 79.16 82.83 3.67
    19 Texas Big 12 83.43 82.33 -1.10
    20 Missouri SEC 83.05 81.99 -1.06
    21 Iowa Big Ten 82.20 81.90 -0.30
    22 South Carolina SEC 76.97 80.71 3.74
    23 Iowa State Big 12 78.81 80.54 1.73
    24 Nebraska Big Ten 76.17 80.38 4.21
    25 Miami (FL) ACC 77.86 79.95 2.08
    26 Tennessee SEC 70.55 79.62 9.07
    27 Washington State Pac-12 81.69 79.54 -2.15
    28 USC Pac-12 74.88 79.52 4.64
    29 Florida State ACC 72.54 79.16 6.61
    30 Stanford Pac-12 79.68 78.95 -0.73
    31 UCF AAC 76.66 78.76 2.10
    32 Minnesota Big Ten 72.83 78.56 5.73
    33 Virginia Tech ACC 71.28 78.39 7.11
    34 Oklahoma State Big 12 78.99 78.31 -0.68
    35 TCU Big 12 74.01 77.79 3.78
    36 Virginia ACC 77.03 77.46 0.43
    37 Baylor Big 12 70.94 77.41 6.47
    38 Cincinnati AAC 72.73 77.21 4.48
    39 Boise State MW 77.93 77.15 -0.78
    40 Syracuse ACC 78.92 77.09 -1.83
    41 Memphis AAC 74.26 76.43 2.17
    42 UCLA Pac-12 70.03 76.07 6.04
    43 Arizona State Pac-12 75.77 76.05 0.28
    44 Northwestern Big Ten 77.39 75.74 -1.65
    45 Kentucky SEC 79.27 75.43 -3.84
    46 Arizona Pac-12 71.88 74.97 3.09
    47 Appalachian State Sun Belt 75.15 74.70 -0.45
    48 BYU Indep 71.38 74.37 2.99
    49 Texas Tech Big 12 76.56 74.32 -2.24
    50 NC State ACC 75.40 74.07 -1.33
    51 Indiana Big Ten 71.63 73.91 2.28
    52 Purdue Big Ten 76.25 73.44 -2.81
    53 Pittsburgh ACC 75.93 73.40 -2.53
    54 California Pac-12 74.31 72.83 -1.48
    55 West Virginia Big 12 77.94 72.72 -5.22
    56 Ole Miss SEC 71.30 72.02 0.72
    57 Utah State MW 77.88 71.71 -6.17
    58 Kansas State Big 12 71.46 71.67 0.21
    59 Vanderbilt SEC 72.24 71.63 -0.61
    60 Fresno State MW 79.07 71.39 -7.68
    61 Army Indep 70.73 71.02 0.29
    62 Duke ACC 74.90 70.80 -4.10
    63 North Carolina ACC 67.69 70.66 2.97
    64 Boston College ACC 77.57 70.42 -7.15
    65 Wake Forest ACC 71.55 70.22 -1.33
    66 Maryland Big Ten 73.54 69.84 -3.70
    67 Arkansas SEC 65.15 69.12 3.97
    68 Colorado Pac-12 70.02 68.37 -1.65
    69 San Diego State MW 65.49 68.28 2.79
    70 Houston AAC 64.76 67.64 2.88
    71 Marshall CUSA 67.40 67.40 0.00
    72 Temple AAC 70.98 67.23 -3.75
    73 FIU CUSA 64.74 66.46 1.72
    74 Ohio MAC 72.11 66.14 -5.97
    75 Air Force MW 66.10 65.88 -0.22
    76 Southern Miss CUSA 61.85 65.83 3.98
    77 Georgia Tech ACC 75.86 65.81 -10.05
    78 Western Michigan MAC 59.47 65.52 6.05
    79 Troy Sun Belt 65.82 65.41 -0.41
    80 USF AAC 62.15 65.25 3.10
    81 Toledo MAC 65.34 64.95 -0.39
    82 Arkansas State Sun Belt 64.96 64.71 -0.25
    83 Florida Atlantic CUSA 66.83 64.61 -2.22
    84 Louisiana Tech CUSA 63.95 64.46 0.51
    85 SMU AAC 63.70 63.81 0.11
    86 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 62.72 63.74 1.02
    87 North Texas CUSA 64.26 63.61 -0.65
    88 Northern Illinois MAC 66.05 63.54 -2.51
    89 Louisville ACC 55.68 63.41 7.73
    90 Tulane AAC 65.69 62.86 -2.83
    91 Illinois Big Ten 59.23 62.85 3.62
    92 Nevada MW 65.12 62.55 -2.57
    93 Hawaii MW 57.33 61.40 4.07
    94 Oregon State Pac-12 58.61 61.09 2.48
    95 UAB CUSA 69.07 60.97 -8.10
    96 Tulsa AAC 61.24 60.85 -0.39
    97 Wyoming MW 63.38 60.71 -2.67
    98 Miami (OH) MAC 67.03 60.27 -6.76
    99 UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 58.79 59.39 0.60
    100 Middle Tennessee CUSA 65.58 59.27 -6.31
    101 Rutgers Big Ten 55.95 58.68 2.73
    102 Buffalo MAC 67.12 58.41 -8.71
    103 Western Kentucky CUSA 56.14 58.16 2.02
    104 Kansas Big 12 64.47 57.69 -6.78
    105 Eastern Michigan MAC 64.29 57.67 -6.62
    106 UNLV MW 55.65 57.36 1.71
    107 Navy AAC 61.00 57.20 -3.80
    108 UL-Monroe Sun Belt 56.48 56.55 0.07
    109 Ball State MAC 52.27 54.80 2.53
    110 Colorado State MW 54.55 54.21 -0.34
    111 Kent State MAC 50.72 54.18 3.46
    112 Liberty Indep 53.65 53.75 0.10
    113 Charlotte CUSA 55.83 53.47 -2.36
    114 East Carolina AAC 52.84 53.44 0.60
    115 Texas State Sun Belt 48.32 53.29 4.97
    116 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 52.35 51.91 -0.44
    117 Georgia State Sun Belt 47.60 51.58 3.98
    118 New Mexico MW 52.41 51.00 -1.41
    119 San Jose State MW 49.75 50.76 1.01
    120 Central Michigan MAC 50.90 49.81 -1.09
    121 Old Dominion CUSA 53.64 49.21 -4.43
    122 UTSA CUSA 47.05 48.63 1.58
    123 New Mexico State Indep 47.64 48.61 0.97
    124 Akron MAC 52.98 48.34 -4.64
    125 Bowling Green MAC 50.68 48.34 -2.34
    126 Rice CUSA 45.96 46.85 0.89
    127 South Alabama Sun Belt 47.48 46.73 -0.75
    128 UTEP CUSA 45.98 44.86 -1.12
    129 Massachusetts Indep 53.37 44.76 -8.61
    130 Connecticut AAC 40.92 44.61 3.69
     
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  2. tiger_rag

    tiger_rag Well-Known Member
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    A few interesting ones in there.
     
  3. iliketrafficlights

    iliketrafficlights Well-Known Member
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    Vegas has little respect for the Big 12.
     
  4. kluegs17

    kluegs17 Well-Known Member
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    Welp, looks like Michigan won the preseason Big Ten Championship once again. 20+ years running...

    Frankly, I'm surprised to see Michigan State so high at #12. Our defense should be filthy but our offense was a complete clown show last year. I'll be surprised if we make significant progress on the offensive side considering Dantonio decided to shuffle the existing coaching staff around instead of bringing in new blood. If we can just improve from "clown show" to "mediocre" on the offensive side, we should be able to win 9+ games.
     
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  5. Digger1

    Digger1 Well-Known Member
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    I posted awhile back that Michigan State should be a top 15. They return as many or more starters than Oregon who is everybodys DARLING this offseason and they played a 1 point ballgame vs each other in their bowl game.
     
  6. Fatsquirrel

    Fatsquirrel Well-Known Member
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    So salty all of the time.
     
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  7. LongTimeSooner

    LongTimeSooner Well-Known Member
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    Don’t be a clown. Seems pretty fair to me.
     
  8. Zgeo

    Zgeo Well-Known Member
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    Yes.....TexASS spanked Georgia and yet Georgia is rated 12 points better than TexASS.....bias is obvious...

    2015 - 2018 Powers is 57% on his CFB picks some a tiny bit better than 50%.... not good
     
    8 Zgeo, Jun 12, 2019 at 9:21 AM
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2019 at 9:29 AM
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  9. iliketrafficlights

    iliketrafficlights Well-Known Member
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    3 teams listed in their top 30 teams. I don’t think what I said was clownish. I’m staying a fact. They have little respect for the quality of the Big 12. It looks like they see the conference as Oklahoma Texas and the 10 dwarves.
     
  10. LongTimeSooner

    LongTimeSooner Well-Known Member
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    Heavy SEC bias is far more than just ‘Vegas’. And it’s gonna be a down year for the Big 12.
     
  11. Zgeo

    Zgeo Well-Known Member
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    I don’t think BP even considers Texass a real team......Texass manhandled Georgia , when Georgia considered it the biggest game of the year, and yet BP has Georgia 12 points better than Texass ....

    Clear bias showing and is probably why BP is just slightly better than a flip of the coin in his success rate on predictions(57% over 2015-2018j
     
  12. iliketrafficlights

    iliketrafficlights Well-Known Member
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    It sounds like in the end that you agree with my assessment.
     
  13. iliketrafficlights

    iliketrafficlights Well-Known Member
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    You pretty much just posted the same Shit twice. That’s really unlucky. Maybe you should make the same post a third time. Three is a luckier number than 2.
     
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  14. Zgeo

    Zgeo Well-Known Member
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    No reread it......you added a post saying BP thought OU and UT were the only real teams in the Big 12, I responded to that by saying he didn’t even respect UT and gave the reasons why......i was responding to your post and supported my position with facts....I can’t help it if I have to tell you the same thing twice before you understand ....SmokinSmile
     
  15. Ronin26

    Ronin26 Well-Known Member
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    Some interesting numbers.

    Didn't expect Auburn to be in the top 10. I know they're good, just didn't expect them that high. Same with South Carolina.

    Iowa better than Nebraska. Interesting.
     
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  16. Digger1

    Digger1 Well-Known Member
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    South Carolina has nice talent on their team. At #22 however they play 6 teams ahead of them in these power ratings. And then they would also be a 2 point dog at Tennessee if you read Brad's power rating closely. They would make them a dog in 7 games.

    I know Phil Steele has Auburn #10 in his power ratings but #19 when he figures in their schedule.

    Power ratings do not figure in who you play.
     
    16 Digger1, Jun 12, 2019 at 10:02 AM
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2019 at 11:58 PM
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  17. midcalhorn

    midcalhorn Well-Known Member
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    He’ll get a couple Georgia fans to bite eventually. They can’t resist.
     
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  18. Zgeo

    Zgeo Well-Known Member
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    Well Georgia at 3 and Texass at 19 when Texass curb stomped Georgia totally dominating the LOS does show bias.....and being slightly more accurate than a coin flip does show the results of that bias....the typical MB poster will hit 75% success rate easily....
     
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  19. LongTimeSooner

    LongTimeSooner Well-Known Member
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    you made some dig that vegas didn't respect the Big 12. We both understand the difference.

    Don't be a beta looking for some hot take when it isn't.
     
  20. olsonab

    olsonab Well-Known Member
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    Exactly.

    Auburn has top 10-12 talent, but also plays 7 of the top 15 power teams with 4 of those away from home (Oregon, LSU, UF, and Texas AM)

    Absolutely brutal schedule..
     
  21. Duckdude73

    Duckdude73 Moderator
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    Steele has us as #1 in his experience ratings and Sparty at 8 overall. He likes both teams to be between 10-15 range for overall ranking. We might be getting a bit more love because we are preseason favorites for the conference, coupled with an amazing recruiting class and two huge transfers who will have big roles for us.
     
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  22. iliketrafficlights

    iliketrafficlights Well-Known Member
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    It’s a dig if I say that I have no respect for the Big 12. It’s not a dig to summarize someone else’s posted opinion.

    Now when I insult your ability to read because you’re an Oklahoma fan that would be a dig. So there’s something you can come at me for, Cletus.
     
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  23. H8FULLGR8

    H8FULLGR8 Well-Known Member
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    Two 4-8 seasons in a row will not and should not get a team a lot of love. I’m personally amused by the rankings 20-25. Actually having Nebraska that high based on results on the field and Iowa that low based on results on the field shows what the national perception is of those respective programs.:)
     
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  24. kluegs17

    kluegs17 Well-Known Member
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    No salt, I find it comical. These preseason publications have to pander to the largest fan bases in order to sell subscriptions/magazines. Pretty easy to see why this happens on an annual basis.
     
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  25. Digger1

    Digger1 Well-Known Member
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    Iowa only returns 10 starters.

    Last year I had both Nebraska and Iowa both going 8-4.
     
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  26. g8rbass94

    g8rbass94 Well-Known Member
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    That would give UF 6 top 25 opponents. Tough row to hoe.
     
  27. DawginSC

    DawginSC Well-Known Member
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    I guess UGA curb stomped Oklahoma the year before?

    Or is 7 points "curb stomping" and 6 points "a close game" in Big 12 football? Maybe we should have asked to kick the extra point after winning that game?

    I'm confused about OU fans celebrating a Texas win by 7 points against an unmotivated opponent so much. The poll voters didn't even think Texas was better than UGA last season after the game was over... UGA was 7th and Texas was 9th.
     
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  28. dragonhawk1855

    dragonhawk1855 Well-Known Member
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    what's so interesting about it? Nebraska has to show that they can improve their defense that gave up 31+ ppg and was in the 90's in total defense.

    Iowa returns all 3 LB 3 starters of the 2nd'ary return and they return 4 of their top 8 off the DL the biggest is DE JR Epenesa who T-8th in FBS in sacks and has been slatted as high 3rd in the 2020 draft if he comes out. off a defense that was 6th in total defense and T-11th in scoring defense,
    the offense returns their SR 3rd year QB, their leading rusher in JR Sargeant who came to Iowa as a 1st team JUCO AA, 2 more JR RBs that all had starts in the BT, they return 2 of the top 3 WR's in a pair of JR's

    LT RSJR Jackson has been listed as a 1st round draft pick
    RT JR Wirfs has also been listed as a 1st round draft pick

    so a team that has 3 players listed as 1st round picks should be higher than Nebraska if not higher, last season was a unique year with having 2 1st round TE picks, Iowa will just go back to using the WR's as the top receiving targets.

    its not like is completely rebuilding the entire team on defense or offense,
     
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  29. tiger_rag

    tiger_rag Well-Known Member
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    What an absolute dogshit excuse.
     
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  30. LongTimeSooner

    LongTimeSooner Well-Known Member
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    In fairness, both Texas and UGA can EABOD! :)
     
  31. DawginSC

    DawginSC Well-Known Member
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    Call it what you will. UGA players were tweeting about the playoff games and players were sitting out for the NFL draft. 4/5ths of the OL were young enough that they had never played in a game that had no bearing on the national championship hunt. Lots of player fit that description... the starting QB, the leading RB a bunch of defenders.

    Alabama has had 3 games since 2008 where they weren't still in the championship hunt. They played horrible in two of them. When teams start to get used to playing for titles, it can be hard to get motivated even for "big" games like Sugar Bowls.

    Bama has it worse than UGA in that regard... for them it's the entire team who is used to playing for meaningful games rather than just a couple of classes. Clemson when they finally don't make the playoff will be in a similar spot. Oklahoma will too.

    You can absolutely call that a failure in coaching that UGA wasn't ready or motivated for the game. But it's tough to argue that they were motivated when players were sitting out and talking about playoff games they weren't playing in less than a week before their bowl game and how they felt slighted for not being in the playoff.

    Lots of teams play crappy the game after they get eliminated from championship consideration before they settle in to the fact they're no longer playing for anything. Stanford fell apart after losing to ND. Michigan fell apart after losing to OSU (they had lots of guys sit out their bowl game too). Kentucky blew a game against Tennessee after getting knocked out of the SECCG race by losing to UGA. Auburn last year played crappy against UCF after losing the SECCG to UGA. Florida lost to Mizzou the game after UGA knocked them out of the SECCG race.

    Playing for something matters. It's an adjustment when you aren't playing for something anymore. Many teams blow the game after being eliminated from playing for anything. I wish UGA didn't do that as well... but they did. Such is reality.
     
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  32. tiger_rag

    tiger_rag Well-Known Member
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    Feeling slighted isn't a motivating factor?

    Also, once you hit the field and are lined up across from your opponent, the "didn't want to be there" excuse goes out the window. Because at that point you want to beat your man, regardless of the hype or lack thereof heading into the game.

    UGA got beat by a better team that night. It happens.
     
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  33. CardX

    CardX Well-Known Member
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    That's the best photo he could use?
    [​IMG]
     
  34. DawginSC

    DawginSC Well-Known Member
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    It also happens that teams lose to worse teams.

    This is why UGA can beat UF by 19, UF can beat LSU by 8 and LSU can beat UGA by 20 all within the span of one calendar month.

    UGA was worse than Texas that day without a first round draft pick who was also the Thorpe Award winner on the field and with a team tweeting about how they should be in the playoff days before their bowl game.

    But they were the better team over the course of the season... which is why they were ranked ahead of Texas after losing to them.

    You're talking about how you think players 'SHOULD' feel and react. I'm talking about the reality of what they do. Michigan was better than Florida last year (I think at least)... but with a bunch of guys sitting out the game for the draft after losing out on a potential playoff spot when they lost to OSU, they blew the game after they were eliminated from championship contention. UF blew the game after THEY were eliminated as well... it just happened a lot earlier in the season (when they lost to UGA). Texas blew the game after THEY were eliminated as well (losing to WVU the week after losing to OkSU). LSU didn't lose... but they played so poorly that a horrendous Arkansas team only lost to them by 7 points.

    While all of these teams should have just "wanted to beat their man regardless of the hype or lack thereof"... that's just not reality. It's not how they 18-21 year-old kids actually react. Even Bama with Nick Saban as their coach has problems in that regard. He doesn't have to deal with it often, but Bama often does blow bowl games when they get knocked out of the national champioship hunt the game before.

    I would love UGA to have come out and played hard in reaction to their loss to Bama the game before. But I'm not going to say they did when it's clear they didn't.
     
  35. tiger_rag

    tiger_rag Well-Known Member
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    So, watching that game, you don't think your team was motivated to win at the end? What an absolute terrible excuse for losing a football game. As I said, Texas was better than UGA in that game.
     
  36. DawginSC

    DawginSC Well-Known Member
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    Yes, Texas was better than UGA in that game... because UGA was not motivated or prepared and UGA had a couple of players sitting out (including a first round draft pick).

    You can use other terms if you don't like "not motivated". The reality is lots of teams play like crap the game after they get eliminated from championship contention. It would be a good thing for those teams if they didn't do that... but there are so many examples of it that it's hard to fathom that you can't see it.

    I understand it's been years since your team has been in that situation. It's been even longer for Bama. I hope UGA gets to that point where they simply don't ever have to play in games that don't matter. But surely you can't say you haven't seen tons of teams suffer from this.
     
  37. tiger_rag

    tiger_rag Well-Known Member
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    You do realize UGA wasn't the only team that had players sit out the bowl game because they were entering the draft, right? So that is another dogshit excuse, and you can remove that from your "reasoning".

    I just don't see why it's so hard for UGA fans to admit: "man, we just got beat that night" without also adding in they weren't motivated and had players sitting out.
     
    37 tiger_rag, Jun 12, 2019 at 2:17 PM
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2019 at 3:43 PM
    LeroyOU12 and Ronin26 like this.
  38. scopes_monkey

    scopes_monkey Well-Known Member
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    SEC mantra. If they lost it's because they deserved to be in a better bowl. If they win it's because they're better than everyone else.
     
  39. DawginSC

    DawginSC Well-Known Member
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    Yes, other teams did. Michigan did (lost their bowl). WVU did (lost their bowl). Michgan State did (lost their bowl). Stanford did (barely won their bowl against a horrible opponent). Memphis did (lost their bowl). South Carolina did (lost their bowl). NC State did (lost their bowl). Arizona State did (lost their bowl). Houston did (lost their bowl).

    I think LSU might be the only team who'd say they played relatively well in their bowl despite having a player skip the bowl for the NFL draft. Maybe Iowa too.
     
  40. DrCorona

    DrCorona Well-Known Member
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    Biggest gap between #1 conference team & #2 conference team is ACC.
    Clemson at #2 & Canes at #25....with Noles chuggin in at #29.
    Big 12 shows Boomer Sooner at #5 & Horns at #19 with the Juggernaut Cyclones checking in at #23. Winking
     

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