Baylor guards…

[GE Nole]

Sorry, KU was better.

Stunning analysis there.

Look, Kansas had a great team. And if they avoided FSU, very well might have cut down the net.

But styles make fights. Especially in March. And the objective, data backed reality is FSU would have been a very poor matchup for Kansas.

There would have been teams that stylistically presented problems for FSU too. But against Kansas, FSU wins 7 out of 10 in 2020.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Those stats I used were from KenPom. Trent Forrest himself had 8 steals in a game against Duke that season, so we pretty much turned over everyone. When you’re top 10 in blocks and steals, and you play in a big time conference, safe to say you have a damn disruptive defense.

FSU’s efficiency numbers take hits from Hamilton’s desire to play 12 deep. He’s willing to have a 30 point win be a 17 point win if it means getting 12-13 guys meaningful action on a routine basis. Hence, FSU having 38.5% of their minutes played by their bench that season, and 11 guys playing 20% or more of the possible minutes.

Compare that with Kansas having just 23.5% of their minutes played by the bench and three starters who played over 80% of the possible minutes.

Might not seem like a ton but over a full season that is a massive difference on our efficiency metrics…and also a massive difference in how fresh we are late in games. That’s part of why Hamilton has an insane record in close games.

If we met up in the Final Four, maybe it doesn’t matter. But in the Elite 8 after playing a tough Sweet 16 game 36 hours prior? Our depth would have likely been a factor.

Yeah....I don't think that explains the massive difference in efficiency numbers on Kenpom and all the other ranking sites. Especially since KU's efficiency numbers don't even represent how they were playing at the end of the year. Self spent half the season trying to force McCormack onto the court next to Azubuike.

You can spin it, but according to every ranking system, KU was in a different class than Florida St. You're just cherry-picking numbers that favor FSU and ignoring everything that doesn't.

FSU was 71st in points allowed. KU 10th. KU was 9th in FG% and 3rd in opponent FG%. FSU was 74th and 56th. KU was 42nd in total rebounds. FSU was 166th. KU was 16th in 2 point % and 6th in opponent 2 point %. FSU was 110th and 80th. And KU did this against better competition.

You might be right that FSU would have forced a number of turnovers, but that doesn't nullify all the advantages that KU had. KU would have had an easy time scoring inside and Florida St would have had a very difficult time scoring inside.

 

[jhmossy]

UVA would definitely have gone back to back in 2020. Best defense coupled with championship mentality

 

[ExitFlagger]

Stunning analysis there.

Look, Kansas had a great team. And if they avoided FSU, very well might have cut down the net.

But styles make fights. Especially in March. And the objective, data backed reality is FSU would have been a very poor matchup for Kansas.

There would have been teams that stylistically presented problems for FSU too. But against Kansas, FSU wins 7 out of 10 in 2020.

How many final fours has that style led to? Hell, how many tourney appearances? 11 total tourney wins in the last quarter century. KU has more than that in the last four tourneys alone, and two of those teams were among the weakest KU teams of the modern era.

KU would have had the two best players on the court, the best defensive player on the court, and the better coach. Do you realize how many times Self has beaten teams that could cause a few matchup problems? Especially when his team was capable of causing as many or more. It's laughable to suggest that forcing a few more steals than the average team would have made up for all their deficiencies.

 

[AWilli6995]

I'm not gonna say KU was the best team in 2020, no one can and to say they would of beat a certain team in March just because of the numbers is crazy. UNLV, Georgetown, Houston and there's others that were way better than the field and they didn't win. Who's to say KU would of flamed out early in the tournament had one been played or won it all? I do know had FSU played KU that would of been a helluva game and that team was long, deep and athletic but to say KU was the best team that year because the numbers say so is crazy. No tournament means no champion, just alot of what ifs and a bunch of numbers talk.

 

[Clonewithasigh]

Baylor guards are literally why I picked them preseason (DK) and early season (MGM)..

If/When they get Everyday Jon back, this team could be peaked at just the right time.

When the smoke clears on a long season, I expect Baylor to be right near the top of the B12 and be an extremely difficult out in the dance.

 

[ExitFlagger]

I'm not gonna say KU was the best team in 2020, no one can and to say they would of beat a certain team in March just because of the numbers is crazy. UNLV, Georgetown, Houston and there's others that were way better than the field and they didn't win. Who's to say KU would of flamed out early in the tournament had one been played or won it all? I do know had FSU played KU that would of been a helluva game and that team was long, deep and athletic but to say KU was the best team that year because the numbers say so is crazy. No tournament means no champion, just alot of what ifs and a bunch of numbers talk.

I'd say it's a lot crazier to argue that FSU would have smoked KU than to agree with every ranking system and national analyst. Obviously no one is saying that KU was guaranteed to win it all.

 

[Marlattman84]

Apparently you didn’t notice that you’re in a thread created by a K-State fan to obsess over KU. 🤣

Title is "Baylor Guards...", dumbass. But, please, continue your obsession with KSU. They lost last night, better get on that. 😁

 

[AWilli6995]

I'd say it's a lot crazier to argue that FSU would have smoked KU than to agree with every ranking system and national analyst. Obviously no one is saying that KU was guaranteed to win it all.

No, not saying that but to say KU would of beat FSU based on numbers is crazy. In 2015 a undefeated UK team lost to Wisconsin, who saw that coming? 2020 KU was no where near the level of that UK team and they lost, who's to say that wouldn't of happened had a tournament been played?

 

[ExitFlagger]

No, not saying that but to say KU would of beat FSU based on numbers is crazy. In 2015 a undefeated UK team lost to Wisconsin, who saw that coming? 2020 KU was no where near the level of that UK team and they lost, who's to say that wouldn't of happened had a tournament been played?

Have you followed this thread? FSU guy is the one who popped in with the "We'd have kicked your ass because numbers" take. A few carefully cherry-picked numbers at that. I countered with some other numbers that he conveniently left out.

As for UK, that's irrelevant. All that matters is the 2020 field. There was no 2015 Wisconsin or 2015 Duke in their path. Per Kenpom, the gap between 2020 KU and the field was larger than the gap between 2015 Kentucky and the field.

Besides, I just said that there's no guarantee that they'd have won it all, and I don't think anyone has said otherwise. Not sure why you keep mentioning that.

 

[ExitFlagger]

Title is "Baylor Guards...", dumbass. But, please, continue your obsession with KSU. They lost last night, better get on that. 😁

The post was about KU's alleged struggles vs Baylor, dipshit. Did you learn to read in Manhappenin? 🤣

 

[AWilli6995]

Have you followed this thread? FSU guy is the one who popped in with the "We'd have kicked your ass because numbers" take. A few carefully cherry-picked numbers at that. I countered with some other numbers that he conveniently left out.

As for UK, that's irrelevant. All that matters is the 2020 field. There was no 2015 Wisconsin or 2015 Duke in their path. Per Kenpom, the gap between 2020 KU and the field was larger than the gap between 2015 Kentucky and the field.

Besides, I just said that there's no guarantee that they'd have won it all, and I don't think anyone has said otherwise. Not sure why you keep mentioning that.

No, I didn't know the FSU guy said that and that is a crazy statement. Again, numbers, KENPOM, etc don't mean anything. You still have to play the game. We all know come March, it's a crapshoot and we all have been disappointed alot.

 

[ExitFlagger]

No, I didn't know the FSU guy said that and that is a crazy statement. Again, numbers, KENPOM, etc don't mean anything. You still have to play the game. We all know come March, it's a crapshoot and we all have been disappointed alot.

There's obviously no perfect computer rating system and never will be, but if there's a massive difference in the ratings at the end of the year, I think that says something. If you completely ignore the numbers, then what do you bring to the table in a debate? "My team's better cuz I said so?"

For example, Kentucky at 29 (with a massive disparity in efficiency) claiming to be the best team? Give me a break. KU had a similar rating in '21, and it's no coincidence that that team had the most lopsided tourney loss of any KU team in the modern era.

 

[AWilli6995]

There's obviously no perfect computer rating system and never will be, but if there's a massive difference in the ratings at the end of the year, I think that says something. If you completely ignore the numbers, then what do you bring to the table in a debate? "My team's better cuz I said so?"

For example, Kentucky at 29 (with a massive disparity in efficiency) claiming to be the best team? Give me a break. KU had a similar rating in '21, and it's no coincidence that that team had the most lopsided tourney loss of any KU team in the modern era.

Numbers make for a good debate but if it's not settled on the court no one can say my team is better because sometimes numbers do lie.

 

[GE Nole]

Yeah....I don't think that explains the massive difference in efficiency numbers on Kenpom and all the other ranking sites. Especially since KU's efficiency numbers don't even represent how they were playing at the end of the year. Self spent half the season trying to force McCormack onto the court next to Azubuike.

You can spin it, but according to every ranking system, KU was in a different class than Florida St. You're just cherry-picking numbers that favor FSU and ignoring everything that doesn't.

FSU was 71st in points allowed. KU 10th. KU was 9th in FG% and 3rd in opponent FG%. FSU was 74th and 56th. KU was 42nd in total rebounds. FSU was 166th. KU was 16th in 2 point % and 6th in opponent 2 point %. FSU was 110th and 80th. And KU did this against better competition.

You might be right that FSU would have forced a number of turnovers, but that doesn't nullify all the advantages that KU had. KU would have had an easy time scoring inside and Florida St would have had a very difficult time scoring inside.

I’m not sure where you’re getting your numbers from but they are wrong. FSU wasn’t 110th and 80th in those categories. They were 91st and 70th. And the raw stats are worthless. Total points scored? Who cares about that. It’s completely impacted by pace of play, garbage time, etc. Points per possession adjusted for schedule strength is at least a more relevant stat.

But the real kicker is, it’s not just that FSU would have forced a few turnovers. FSU forced teams completely out of their offensive rhythm. There were stretches that very good teams couldn’t even run simple half court sets.

Would teams score some baskets on occasion when they broke a press or the D gambled? Sure. No defense is impenetrable. But forcing a turnover on 1/4 of possessions means that many times teams aren’t even getting a shot off, let alone an east shot. It’s pretty laughable that someone thinks any team is gonna have “an easy time scoring inside” against a team that blocks 15% of opponents’ shots.

 

[GE Nole]

No, I didn't know the FSU guy said that and that is a crazy statement. Again, numbers, KENPOM, etc don't mean anything. You still have to play the game. We all know come March, it's a crapshoot and we all have been disappointed alot.

Well to actually be accurate instead of just making stuff up, what I said was “fsu would have a number of 6-0/8-0 flurries” due to Kansas’ penchant for turning the ball over and our ability to force steals.

And then I also said “FSU would win 7 out of 10 times.”

Kansas fans are just mad that someone is actually bringing some heat to a conversation about their almighty program not being a shoe-in for a title in 2020. Like I told them, styles make fights. Especially in March. Kansas fans should know as well as anyone that matchups are a huge part of it.

 

[GE Nole]

There's obviously no perfect computer rating system and never will be, but if there's a massive difference in the ratings at the end of the year, I think that says something. If you completely ignore the numbers, then what do you bring to the table in a debate? "My team's better cuz I said so?"

For example, Kentucky at 29 (with a massive disparity in efficiency) claiming to be the best team? Give me a break. KU had a similar rating in '21, and it's no coincidence that that team had the most lopsided tourney loss of any KU team in the modern era.

All the computer rankings had Louisville over FSU in 2020, so clearly they won on the court right? Oh wait, FSU beatdown the Cardinals twice, once on their home court.

Clearly Kansas was an elite team that year. They were certainly one of the 5-6 teams that would have advanced to the Final Four in most brackets. But it’s not like they were getting UNLV 1991 hype. Plenty of media folks picked other teams. Heck, one major outlet didn’t even have Kansas making it past the Sweet 16. While Dick Vitale picked FSU to win it all.

My guess is, Kansas, FSU, San Diego State, Gonzaga, Dayton, and a couple others could probably all find some media that picked them in the “what if” stuff.

 

[Turinturumbar]

Stunning analysis there.

Look, Kansas had a great team. And if they avoided FSU, very well might have cut down the net.

But styles make fights. Especially in March. And the objective, data backed reality is FSU would have been a very poor matchup for Kansas.

There would have been teams that stylistically presented problems for FSU too. But against Kansas, FSU wins 7 out of 10 in 2020.

I don’t agree. And even if you’re right and FSU was a poor matchup, KU still would have been overall #1 seed and would have had the easier path more than likely. So if I had to put my money on one or the other making it through the gauntlet to the end it would be LU.