Bart Tovik preseason projections

Discussion in 'College Basketball Board' started by Kronic22, May 23, 2020.

  1. Kronic22

    Kronic22 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 29, 2001
    Messages:
    19,159
    Likes Received:
    1,193
    2021 T-Rank Projections
    RK TEAM ADJOE ADJDE BARTHAG PROJ. REC
    1 Texas 117.9
    3 91.5
    5 .9485 24-7
    2 Gonzaga 119.0
    1 92.7
    17 .9461 27-4
    3 Virginia 111.8
    33 87.2
    1 .9454 24-6
    4 Baylor 116.5
    7 92.1
    10 .9371 22-8
    5 Florida 116.7
    5 92.3
    13 .9364 23-8
    6 Wisconsin 115.6
    12 91.5
    6 .9360 23-8
    7 West Virginia 115.5
    13 92.0
    9 .9319 22-9
    8 Kansas 113.4
    20 91.1
    3 .9258 21-10
    9 Villanova 116.3
    9 93.6
    29 .9241 23-8
    10 Texas Tech 112.8
    26 90.9
    2 .9235 22-9
    11 Creighton 116.6
    6 94.7
    46 .9170 23-8
    12 Michigan St. 112.8
    27 91.8
    7 .9144 21-10
    13 Ohio St. 114.9
    14 93.6
    30 .9128 21-10
    14 Duke 111.7
    35 91.3
    4 .9098 22-9
    15 North Carolina 114.6
    17 94.0
    37 .9064 20-11
    16 Florida St. 112.7
    30 92.5
    14 .9063 21-10
    17 Tennessee 113.4
    21 93.2
    23 .9054 22-9
    18 Houston 112.8
    28 92.8
    18 .9044 23-8
    19 Indiana 112.9
    25 93.0
    19 .9029 21-10
    20 Oregon 116.3
    10 96.0
    67 .9007 22-9
    21 Connecticut 116.5
    8 96.2
    70 .9002 23-8
    22 Penn St. 111.4
    39 92.1
    11 .8988 20-11
    23 Michigan 112.4
    32 93.0
    20 .8985 19-12
    24 Miami FL 114.8
    15 95.6
    60 .8916 19-11
    25 Stanford 110.8
    45 92.2
    12 .8912 23-8
    26 Kentucky 112.8
    29 94.0
    35 .8907 21-10
    27 Iowa 118.3
    2 98.6
    112 .8905 20-11
    28 Saint Louis 111.6
    36 93.1
    21 .8890 25-6
    29 LSU 117.6
    4 98.4
    107 .8863 22-9
    30 Rutgers 109.8
    58 91.9
    8 .8859 21-10
    31 Oklahoma St. 113.3
    23 94.9
    49 .8852 19-12
    32 Louisville 113.3
    24 95.0
    51 .8838 20-11
    33 Richmond 115.9
    11 97.2
    85 .8829 24-7
    34 Illinois 112.6
    31 94.5
    44 .8828 20-11
    35 Providence 111.1
    42 93.4
    27 .8797 21-10
    36 UCLA 114.5
    18 96.6
    74 .8759 21-10
    37 St. John's 110.4
    51 93.3
    24 .8737 21-10
    38 Oklahoma 110.3
    54 93.3
    25 .8726 18-13
    39 Alabama 111.1
    41 94.3
    40 .8687 21-10
    40 Arizona 110.7
    46 94.4
    42 .8626 20-11
    41 Syracuse 110.6
    47 94.5
    43 .8598 19-12
    42 Purdue 109.0
    70 93.1
    22 .8588 17-14
    43 Georgia Tech 108.2
    82 92.7
    16 .8556 19-12
    44 Washington 110.4
    53 94.6
    45 .8554 20-11
    45 BYU 111.0
    43 95.5
    58 .8495 22-9
    46 Northern Iowa 113.7
    19 97.9
    98 .8478 23-7
    47 North Carolina St. 110.8
    44 95.5
    57 .8474 19-12
    48 Loyola Chicago 109.3
    68 94.2
    39 .8463 24-7
    49 Xavier 108.8
    73 93.8
    33 .8453 19-12
    50 Missouri 109.7
    60 94.7
    47 .8449 19-12
     
  2. Kronic22

    Kronic22 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 29, 2001
    Messages:
    19,159
    Likes Received:
    1,193
    Big 12 will be loaded.

    Sorry about the crappy formatting, copy and pasted from my phone.
     
  3. Villian07

    Villian07 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2015
    Messages:
    1,106
    Likes Received:
    496
    Never heard of this guy.

    but imo Nova is way too low imo, as well as FSU and UK. Louisville too but I’m a fan so might be homerism.

    And Texas at 1 is well a stretch, I think they will be a good team but I don’t think they will Be the best team in the nation. But that’s why they play the games (hopefully)
     
  4. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 2, 2015
    Messages:
    5,968
    Likes Received:
    3,607
    Texas?

    TEXas?




    Texas?
     
  5. Villian07

    Villian07 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2015
    Messages:
    1,106
    Likes Received:
    496
    Actually there a lot I don’t agree with but it’s just my opinion.
     
    KisteK and Bert Higginbotha like this.
  6. Hank_

    Hank_ Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2017
    Messages:
    1,355
    Likes Received:
    1,937
    That model weighs returning production a little too heavily.

    Also, all teams inside the top 20 have almost the same projected record lol
     
    klize17 and Bert Higginbotha like this.
  7. WojoRising

    WojoRising Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2015
    Messages:
    1,511
    Likes Received:
    2,766
    Shaka Smart:

    [​IMG]
     
    KisteK likes this.
  8. Kronic22

    Kronic22 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 29, 2001
    Messages:
    19,159
    Likes Received:
    1,193
    He's Kenpom-ish.

    Texas is (over)rated because of returning minutes and recruiting rank.

    Texas will have 8 upperclassmen top 100 players on the roster, the most for any team since 2008 (when this guy started his ranking). Teams with 7 have gone on to win the NC more often than not.

    Doesn't take into account shaka.
     
  9. Kronic22

    Kronic22 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 29, 2001
    Messages:
    19,159
    Likes Received:
    1,193
    The Big 12 will cannibalize itself with 5 top 10ish teams and no bottom feeders, so every road game will be a battle.

    Most projections will be like this since winning on the road is so tough, and the margins are so slim .
     
  10. MrBaracus

    MrBaracus Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 2, 2015
    Messages:
    5,968
    Likes Received:
    3,607
    I won’t be surprised if they’re elite, but there are plenty of teams with several top 100 players.

    The bottom line is that we’re talking about a team that lost to WV by 50 and a bad Iowa St team by 30. Bringing back players from a mediocre team doesn’t necessarily equate to being better than teams that were much better but had to replace more.

    I think they’ll be top 15ish, but there are a lot of question marks.
     
    KisteK likes this.
  11. duckboy33

    duckboy33 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 3, 2009
    Messages:
    39,041
    Likes Received:
    11,895
    Location:
    Eugene, OR
    Coaching is a huge factor that’s difficult to put into a model
     
    KisteK and Hank_ like this.
  12. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2005
    Messages:
    26,647
    Likes Received:
    10,001
    Texas being number 1 and UF being number 5 are both laughable. Pretty sure UF was top 10 in last years and Mike White predictably lost like 14 games

    Miami at 24 is at least 15 spots too high as well. UK is way too low.
     
  13. KisteK

    KisteK Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2012
    Messages:
    3,428
    Likes Received:
    2,990
    Zags, Nova, Baylor and Virginia
    Pre season's sexiest, iyam

    However, preseason projections = meh

    If Shaka gets canned post season, does Bart tweak his algorithm? :oops:
     
    Villian07 and MrBaracus like this.
  14. RR30

    RR30 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2013
    Messages:
    3,235
    Likes Received:
    2,793
    If Texas is #1 at any point next year I'd be stunned. Shaka blows and their roster is overrated. Good talent doesn't mean shit if you have an awful coach.
     
  15. dukedevilz

    dukedevilz Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2002
    Messages:
    5,224
    Likes Received:
    6,706
    Let's not be too hard on Texas. If you go up and down their roster, and combine all of the NCAA tournament wins that all of the players have collected over the years... it's exactly equivalent to the number of games that I've won in the NCAA Tournament, too. Elite company, no question.
     
    GE Nole likes this.
  16. GE Nole

    GE Nole Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2005
    Messages:
    26,647
    Likes Received:
    10,001
    Laughing Well played.
     
  17. BasketBallJunkie-UK

    BasketBallJunkie-UK Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2011
    Messages:
    1,537
    Likes Received:
    904
    This is where you need deep learning on a computer model. I could program it, but I just don't have the time to gather the data.
     
  18. mebeblue2

    mebeblue2 Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2009
    Messages:
    10,482
    Likes Received:
    2,142
    OP this is one of the worst projections i have ever seen
     
  19. sdave

    sdave Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2005
    Messages:
    8,793
    Likes Received:
    2,377
    Location:
    Goleta
    My thought. Who’s the coach now?
     
  20. Kronic22

    Kronic22 Well-Known Member
    Gold Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    May 29, 2001
    Messages:
    19,159
    Likes Received:
    1,193
    Well, he tweaked something or there is new info available, WVU now #1, Texas at 3.
     
  21. SheriffBufordTJustice

    SheriffBufordTJustice Well-Known Member
    Expand Collapse

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2018
    Messages:
    22,567
    Likes Received:
    12,129
    Location:
    In the minds of the ignorant
    Texas is a interesting team.
    Either Shaka is an idiot or fully trust what he has on the court.
    Every person's opinion I trust around basketball claims Shaka is one of the smarter basketball people they know..

    I say all this because no one transferred.
    If Shaka had one year to prove he can coach you would think if he didn't trust his roster he would have made some changes.

    He didn't.
    Plus you have to say all the players buy in.


    In terms of talent...
    There are NBA teams who don't have the athleticism Texas has in the front court.

    I don't know what he is going to do with his guards.
    But if you throw Greg Brown and Kai Jones on the court at the same time.
    You can go end to end to a level that teams can't play with you.

    Plus IMO they have the depth to do so.

    If you take the Top 5 players out.
    Matt Coleman
    Andrew Jones
    Greg Brown
    Jericho Sims
    Kai Jones

    There is enough there with the rest even with.Shaka Smart to have a tournament team
    Courtney Ramey
    Jase Febres
    Royce Hamm
    Will Baker
    Brock Cunningham
    Donovan Williams



    Without a Big 12 and NCAA Tournament we have no idea where that team was at last year

    I saw some things where I thought that team would be able to use their defense to control games.

    As of right now I think Shaka was playing with that team mentally even without 3-4 players and could have made a run to the second weekend even as a double digit seed.
     
    21 SheriffBufordTJustice, May 26, 2020
    Last edited: May 26, 2020

Share This Page