B10 current NCAA seeding projections

EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

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I'll shamelessly give this its own thread so it doesn't get buried in the B10 thread by all the bickering between Michigan and MSU fans..... ;)

------------------------------------------------
Quick look at each team's potential seeding as we progress through the Big Ten Tournament:

Illinois- (Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 4 seed.) Illinois is pretty solidly locked in as a 4 seed on most brackets, and can only go up from here, especially if they come out with a BTT title and get a little help along the way.

Projection: 2 seed

Wisconsin- (Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 3 seed) Most fully expect Wisconsin to end up on that 3 line regardless given the potential for others around them to climb, along with the loss to 10-win Nebraska fresh in everyone's minds (even though the committee is not supposed to have recency bias....) Barring a Finals run in the BTT, Wisconsin is probably gonna fall off that 2 line.

Projection- 3 seed

Purdue- (Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 4 seed) Purdue is another where the BTT can actually swing their fortunes one way or another. Its hard not to see the struggles they've had down the stretch even though they've only lost 6 games on the year. Purdue sits comfortably as a 3 seed right now, but an early exit in the BTT could open the door for other teams to pass them. Conversely, a return to form given their preseason expectations could see them claim that coveted 2 seed that is up for grabs between the top 3 teams in the Big Ten.

Projection- 3 seed

Iowa- (Best case: 5 seed, Worst case: 7 seed) Iowa probably has the simplest range to project here. Win today against Northwestern and they are guaranteed no worse than a 6 seed in the tournament. Lose and they will be a 7. In the unlikely case that they win the BTT, I don't think it will be enough to vault them all the way to a 4 seed unless they do so in very impressive fashion.

Projection- 6 seed

Ohio State- (Best case: 5 seed, Worst case: 7 seed) OSU is currently projected as a 6 seed, but they are definitely trending in the wrong direction. Much like Iowa, a loss today almost guarantees them the 7 seed. However, a win today doesn't necessarily assure them of keeping that 6.

Projection- 6 seed

Michigan State- Best case: 7 seed, Worst case: 10 seed) Unless the committee overcredits MSU/Izzo for winning the BTT, Sparty essentially will be using this tournament to decide whether they get to play a 2 seed or a 1 seed in the 2nd Rd.........Good luck! :D

Projection- 9 seed

Rutgers- (Best case: 8 seed, Worst case 11 seed) Rutgers fans need to stop worrying. You guys are in the dance. The main thing will be whether or not they do anything to improve their seeding. They will certainly have the opponents to boost their resume coming up.

Projection- 10 seed

Indiana- (Best case: 10 seed, Worse case: 12 seed)
With that comeback win over the Wolverines, Indiana should be in. A win over Illinois in the Qtrs will leave no doubt. In the meantime, Hoosiers fans should have their favorite hotel in Dayton on standby...........

Projection- 11/12 seed First Four

Michigan- (Best case: 11/12 seed First Four, Worst case: Out) At 17-14, regardless of what Michigan fans have heard, it is definitely nail-biting time. Depending on how things shake out with the remaining conference tournaments, Michigan could be in that other "Last Four In" game joining the Hoosiers in Dayton.

Projection- 11/12 seed First Four


** I put down 11/12 for the First Four but is it known which seeds are gonna be determined in those FF games? I see the 12 seeds are projected on Lunardi's bracket, but Jerry Palm has an 11/11 and a 12/12 game...............
 

Montana81

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I really think michigan is going to fall out now.

Bracket matrix had them as a 10 before today. Today’s loss will probably drop them to those first four games. But now they have to sweat out all these conference tournaments and pray for no bid thieves.

Oddly enough the acc is one of the biggest candidates for that to happen as all of their current tourney locks appear really vulnerable.

Then you have other bubble teams still playing can move ahead of michigan and push them even further down.

I really think you nailed it at the top. Those teams are basically competing against each other potentially for a 2, 3 and 4 seed. Or it could be a 2 seed and the 3 seed in chicago vs the 3 seed somewhere else. But i be i believe if any of those 3 win the b1g tournament they’re getting a 2 seed.
 

Fighter of the Nightman

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I agree on Illinois, except I think we’ll be the highest 3 after beating IU and barely losing to Iowa. We’ve been owning your ass for just a tad too long and you’re playing extremely well, so you’re due. ;) If we beat you (assuming you beat Rutgers), I think we might get the last 2.

Honestly, I just want to be in Chicago so a sea of orange can take over our home away from home at the United Center, should we make it to the second weekend.
 

della

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I'll shamelessly give this its own thread so it doesn't get buried in the B10 thread by all the bickering between Michigan and MSU fans..... ;)

------------------------------------------------
Quick look at each team's potential seeding as we progress through the Big Ten Tournament:

Illinois- (Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 4 seed.) Illinois is pretty solidly locked in as a 4 seed on most brackets, and can only go up from here, especially if they come out with a BTT title and get a little help along the way.

Projection: 2 seed

Wisconsin- (Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 3 seed) Most fully expect Wisconsin to end up on that 3 line regardless given the potential for others around them to climb, along with the loss to 10-win Nebraska fresh in everyone's minds (even though the committee is not supposed to have recency bias....) Barring a Finals run in the BTT, Wisconsin is probably gonna fall off that 2 line.

Projection- 3 seed

Purdue- (Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 4 seed) Purdue is another where the BTT can actually swing their fortunes one way or another. Its hard not to see the struggles they've had down the stretch even though they've only lost 6 games on the year. Purdue sits comfortably as a 3 seed right now, but an early exit in the BTT could open the door for other teams to pass them. Conversely, a return to form given their preseason expectations could see them claim that coveted 2 seed that is up for grabs between the top 3 teams in the Big Ten.

Projection- 3 seed

Iowa- (Best case: 5 seed, Worst case: 7 seed) Iowa probably has the simplest range to project here. Win today against Northwestern and they are guaranteed no worse than a 6 seed in the tournament. Lose and they will be a 7. In the unlikely case that they win the BTT, I don't think it will be enough to vault them all the way to a 4 seed unless they do so in very impressive fashion.

Projection- 6 seed

Ohio State- (Best case: 5 seed, Worst case: 7 seed) OSU is currently projected as a 6 seed, but they are definitely trending in the wrong direction. Much like Iowa, a loss today almost guarantees them the 7 seed. However, a win today doesn't necessarily assure them of keeping that 6.

Projection- 6 seed

Michigan State- Best case: 7 seed, Worst case: 10 seed) Unless the committee overcredits MSU/Izzo for winning the BTT, Sparty essentially will be using this tournament to decide whether they get to play a 2 seed or a 1 seed in the 2nd Rd.........Good luck! :D

Projection- 9 seed

Rutgers- (Best case: 8 seed, Worst case 11 seed) Rutgers fans need to stop worrying. You guys are in the dance. The main thing will be whether or not they do anything to improve their seeding. They will certainly have the opponents to boost their resume coming up.

Projection- 10 seed

Indiana- (Best case: 10 seed, Worse case: 12 seed)
With that comeback win over the Wolverines, Indiana should be in. A win over Illinois in the Qtrs will leave no doubt. In the meantime, Hoosiers fans should have their favorite hotel in Dayton on standby...........

Projection- 11/12 seed First Four

Michigan- (Best case: 11/12 seed First Four, Worst case: Out) At 17-14, regardless of what Michigan fans have heard, it is definitely nail-biting time. Depending on how things shake out with the remaining conference tournaments, Michigan could be in that other "Last Four In" game joining the Hoosiers in Dayton.

Projection- 11/12 seed First Four


** I put down 11/12 for the First Four but is it known which seeds are gonna be determined in those FF games? I see the 12 seeds are projected on Lunardi's bracket, but Jerry Palm has an 11/11 and a 12/12 game...............
What the heck!!! How is Iowa not a 1 or 2 seed? Sounds like some B1G cheating going on.
 

Kevin Bryan

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** I put down 11/12 for the First Four but is it known which seeds are gonna be determined in those FF games? I see the 12 seeds are projected on Lunardi's bracket, but Jerry Palm has an 11/11 and a 12/12 game...............
Since 2015 the First Four has been for two 11 seeds and two 16 seeds. Before that it was kind of all over the place. Really makes no sense. I personally think it's bullshit that auto-qualifiers have to participate in it. They've already earned their spots. Should be all at-large teams.
 

EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

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Since 2015 the First Four has been for two 11 seeds and two 16 seeds. Before that it was kind of all over the place. Really makes no sense. I personally think it's bullshit that auto-qualifiers have to participate in it. They've already earned their spots. Should be all at-large teams.
I agree. It's been around long enough that I think they can make the shift to it just being the "Last Four In".

I think the issue becomes bumping some of those mid major champs into the 12 seeds to make room for those teams that would be playing for the 16 seed, but would now be guaranteed a spot, thus moving everyone else ahead of them up a spot.
 
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Montana81

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i just thought about this too. only 1 of the 3 top teams can go to chicago.

unless one of them drops to a 5 seed or worse and that’s not happening at this point.

If i’m a 1 seed i think illinois is the team i’d least like to face. that’s a home game for them.

wisconsin scares me the least.
 

Fighter of the Nightman

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i just thought about this too. only 1 of the 3 top teams can go to chicago.

unless one of them drops to a 5 seed or worse and that’s not happening at this point.

If i’m a 1 seed i think illinois is the team i’d least like to face. that’s a home game for them.

wisconsin scares me the least.
It would be such a beautiful sight!!


134624.jpg
 

Boilermaker03

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I'll shamelessly give this its own thread so it doesn't get buried in the B10 thread by all the bickering between Michigan and MSU fans..... ;)

------------------------------------------------
Quick look at each team's potential seeding as we progress through the Big Ten Tournament:

Illinois- (Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 4 seed.) Illinois is pretty solidly locked in as a 4 seed on most brackets, and can only go up from here, especially if they come out with a BTT title and get a little help along the way.

Projection: 2 seed

Wisconsin- (Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 3 seed) Most fully expect Wisconsin to end up on that 3 line regardless given the potential for others around them to climb, along with the loss to 10-win Nebraska fresh in everyone's minds (even though the committee is not supposed to have recency bias....) Barring a Finals run in the BTT, Wisconsin is probably gonna fall off that 2 line.

Projection- 3 seed

Purdue- (Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 4 seed) Purdue is another where the BTT can actually swing their fortunes one way or another. Its hard not to see the struggles they've had down the stretch even though they've only lost 6 games on the year. Purdue sits comfortably as a 3 seed right now, but an early exit in the BTT could open the door for other teams to pass them. Conversely, a return to form given their preseason expectations could see them claim that coveted 2 seed that is up for grabs between the top 3 teams in the Big Ten.

Projection- 3 seed

Iowa- (Best case: 5 seed, Worst case: 7 seed) Iowa probably has the simplest range to project here. Win today against Northwestern and they are guaranteed no worse than a 6 seed in the tournament. Lose and they will be a 7. In the unlikely case that they win the BTT, I don't think it will be enough to vault them all the way to a 4 seed unless they do so in very impressive fashion.

Projection- 6 seed

Ohio State- (Best case: 5 seed, Worst case: 7 seed) OSU is currently projected as a 6 seed, but they are definitely trending in the wrong direction. Much like Iowa, a loss today almost guarantees them the 7 seed. However, a win today doesn't necessarily assure them of keeping that 6.

Projection- 6 seed

Michigan State- Best case: 7 seed, Worst case: 10 seed) Unless the committee overcredits MSU/Izzo for winning the BTT, Sparty essentially will be using this tournament to decide whether they get to play a 2 seed or a 1 seed in the 2nd Rd.........Good luck! :D

Projection- 9 seed

Rutgers- (Best case: 8 seed, Worst case 11 seed) Rutgers fans need to stop worrying. You guys are in the dance. The main thing will be whether or not they do anything to improve their seeding. They will certainly have the opponents to boost their resume coming up.

Projection- 10 seed

Indiana- (Best case: 10 seed, Worse case: 12 seed)
With that comeback win over the Wolverines, Indiana should be in. A win over Illinois in the Qtrs will leave no doubt. In the meantime, Hoosiers fans should have their favorite hotel in Dayton on standby...........

Projection- 11/12 seed First Four

Michigan- (Best case: 11/12 seed First Four, Worst case: Out) At 17-14, regardless of what Michigan fans have heard, it is definitely nail-biting time. Depending on how things shake out with the remaining conference tournaments, Michigan could be in that other "Last Four In" game joining the Hoosiers in Dayton.

Projection- 11/12 seed First Four


** I put down 11/12 for the First Four but is it known which seeds are gonna be determined in those FF games? I see the 12 seeds are projected on Lunardi's bracket, but Jerry Palm has an 11/11 and a 12/12 game...............
Considering how they are playing down the stretch, I think Iowa and Rutgers will be dangerous lower seeds in the NCAA tourney. Regardless of what seed thet get. They've both been playing well.

That game between these two today will be very interesting.
 

Fighter of the Nightman

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Considering how they are playing down the stretch, I think Iowa and Rutgers will be dangerous lower seeds in the NCAA tourney. Regardless of what seed thet get. They've both been playing well.

That game between these two today will be very interesting.
Yeah, if Iowa blows a good/desperate RU team out today, I’m for sure expecting a loss tomorrow if we manage to beat IU today. They’re playing insane. Frankly, regardless of any other excuse, I honestly think it was the insane crowd in Champaign that barely pushed us over the hump last Sunday. Iowa looks VERY good.

The only reservation I have on them is seeing how they “grind out” a win when they’re ice cold shooting … happens to every team sooner or later.
 

EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

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Time for an update as we progress through the Big Ten Tournament:

Projected seeds.......

Illinois- 4 seed

Wisconsin- Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 3 seed

Purdue- Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 4 seed

Iowa- Best case: 4 seed, Worst case: 6 seed

Ohio State- 7 seed

Rutgers- Best case: 10 seed, Worst case: 11 seed

Michigan State: Best case: 7 seed, Worst case: 10 seed

Indiana: Best case: 9 seed, Worst case: 11/12 seed (off the First Four line)

Michigan- Best case: 11/12 First Four, Worst case: Out
 
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LloydCarrIsSmegma

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Time for an update as we progress through the Big Ten Tournament:

Projected seeds.......

Illinois- 4 seed

Wisconsin- Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 3 seed

Purdue- Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 4 seed

Iowa- Best case: 4 seed, Worst case: 6 seed

Ohio State- 7 seed

Rutgers- Best case: 8 seed, Worst case: 11 seed

Michigan State: Best case: 7 seed, Worst case: 10 seed

Indiana: Best case: 9 seed, Worst case: 11/12 seed (off the First Four line)

Michigan- Best case: 11/12 First Four, Worst case: Out

I think Illinois is a 5 seed. I like your thought process on the rest.
 

Boilermaker03

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Time for an update as we progress through the Big Ten Tournament:

Projected seeds.......

Illinois- 4 seed

Wisconsin- Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 3 seed

Purdue- Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 4 seed

Iowa- Best case: 4 seed, Worst case: 6 seed

Ohio State- 7 seed

Rutgers- Best case: 10 seed, Worst case: 11 seed

Michigan State: Best case: 7 seed, Worst case: 10 seed

Indiana: Best case: 9 seed, Worst case: 11/12 seed (off the First Four line)

Michigan- Best case: 11/12 First Four, Worst case: Out
What's the criteria you're using for best case/worst case in regards to Wisconsin and Purdue? Why is Wisconsin's worst a 3 seed and Purdue's a 4? Purdue's Net is 13 and Wisconsin's is 21.

Just curious.
 

EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

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What's the criteria you're using for best case/worst case in regards to Wisconsin and Purdue? Why is Wisconsin's worst a 3 seed and Purdue's a 4? Purdue's Net is 13 and Wisconsin's is 21.

Just curious.
Because of where they're currently projected.

I could be off on Wisconsin, especially if the committee is soured on the Badgers poor play of late and now an early exit in the BTT. They'll probably be a 3 seed, but I could see the committee punishing them for their recent losses.

Also, don't lose to Penn State and that worst case will change...... ;)
 

Boilermaker03

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Because of where they're currently projected.

I could be off on Wisconsin, especially if the committee is soured on the Badgers poor play of late and now an early exit in the BTT. They'll probably be a 3 seed, but I could see the committee punishing them for their recent losses.

Also, don't lose to Penn State and that worst case will change...... ;)
Great to see Brandon Newman come out in the game and have an impact. That has to be tough to not play for so long and come in ready to go.
 

EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

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Updated through the Quarterfinals Round:

Projected seeds.......

Illinois- 4 seed

Wisconsin- 3 seed

Purdue- Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 3 seed

Iowa- Best case: 4 seed, Worst case: 5 seed

Ohio State- 7 seed

Rutgers- Best case: 11 seed, Worst case: 11/12 seed First Four

Michigan State: 8/9 seed

Indiana: 11/12 seed (off the First Four line)

Michigan- Best case: 11/12 seed First Four, Worst case: Out
 
Last edited:

thebasketballreasons

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Its gonna be hard to predict seedings for the Big 10 this year. Lots of good teams, but no great teams. It is the first time that both top 2 seeds were knocked out in the BIG conference tourney quarterfinals, and theres an implication of this.
 

EvilMonkeyInTheCloset

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Updated through the Semifinals:

Projected seeds.......

Illinois- 4 seed

Wisconsin- 3 seed

Purdue- Best case: 2 seed, Worst case: 3 seed

Iowa- Best case: 4 seed, Worst case: 5 seed

Ohio State- 7 seed

Rutgers- Best case: 11 seed, Worst case: 11/12 seed First Four

Michigan State: 8/9 seed

Indiana: 11/12 seed (off the First Four line)

Michigan- Best case: 11/12 seed First Four, Worst case: Out


Aside from the bubble teams, all that's left to iron out is whether or not Iowa/Purdue get a boost from winning the B10 Tournament. Hearing from the national media, it sounds like Iowa has done enough to jump to a 5 seed, especially if they win tomorrow, but could that possibly even raise them to the 4 line?

Meanwhile, Purdue is solidly on the 3 line, but could potentially move up with a win.

I also know that the talking heads for the committee have said that they finalize their bracket before Sunday, and that's technically true..............but what they don't tell you is that they have more than one.

It's called having contingencies.
 
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