ADVERTISEMENT

ACC Championship: Duke vs FSU

bignish

bignish

Well-Known Member
Gold Member
Feb 15, 2016
3,680
4,303
113
Team
Duke
This is going to be a very tough game for Duke to win coming off an emotional win vs a rival in a nailbiter like that. Zion's back looked stiff at the end there so I'm not sure he can bang relentlessly for a 3rd night in a row with the waves of athletes that FSU will send at him and the rest of Duke.

Barrett and Reddish will have to step up for Duke if they're going to win this game.

I don't know enough about FSU to comment on them other than that whole team has been playing great in this tournament. The resident FSU posters will have to step in there.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nickynooch
FSU is 14-1 last 15 games. Rotates a lot of players so their legs should be fresh. Should be a good game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nickynooch
bignish said:
This is going to be a very tough game for Duke to win coming off an emotional win vs a rival in a nailbiter like that. Zion's back looked stiff at the end there so I'm not sure he can bang relentlessly for a 3rd night in a row with the waves of athletes that FSU will send at him and the rest of Duke.

Barrett and Reddish will have to step up for Duke if they're going to win this game.

I don't know enough about FSU to comment on them other than that whole team has been playing great in this tournament. The resident FSU posters will have to step in there.
Click to expand...

Looking forward to it. I think we match up with Duke better than we match up with UNC. We are one of the few teams in the country who has the kind of length and athleticism to match Duke, and there’s not a Leonard Hamilton team that will ever be intimidated by anyone’s hype.

If FSU shoots from the perimeter the way we have in the ACCT so far, I’d say the Noles have a very good chance. But this shooting has been well above what we were doing most of February. If we regress back to that, I’d give the edge to Duke. In our battle in Tallahassee, it seemed like Reddish had his best game of the year. Interested to see if he can equal that.

Live ball turnovers will also be critical. Both teams love to feast on the fast break, so if one team is able to real off a quick 6 or 8 thanks to steals and blocks, that could be a difference maker.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tw3301, nickynooch and heelpharm
Duke looks increasingly Zion reliant as the season goes on, and FSU is one of the few teams that has a chance against him. Didn't see any post game stuff about his back, but he played 35 minutes. On the other hand, FSU's fundamentals are worse than their record (but that Leonard Hamilton close game stat is genuinely insane).

Line is Duke -8.5? Wow. I'd take FSU against the spread, and maybe straight up for a good value bet (+335).
 
  • Like
Reactions: heelpharm
Big_Blue79 said:
Duke looks increasingly Zion reliant as the season goes on, and FSU is one of the few teams that has a chance against him. Didn't see any post game stuff about his back, but he played 35 minutes. On the other hand, FSU's fundamentals are worse than their record (but that Leonard Hamilton close game stat is genuinely insane).

Line is Duke -8.5? Wow. I'd take FSU against the spread, and maybe straight up for a good value bet (+335).
Click to expand...

What exactly do you mean by “FSU’s fundamentals are worse than their record”?

FSU gives up the fewest steals in the conference. FSU has a lower overall turnover rate in conference play than Duke. FSU shoots FTs at over 73% as a team. FSU’s defensive fundamentals are what allows them to lead the league in 2pt FG% defense.

So which fundamentals do you mean? Does Duke also have fundamentals worse than their record? What about Kentucky? Kentucky gives up more steals than FSU and has a worse overall turnover rate in conference play than FSU.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jupiter Nole, tw3301, nickynooch and 1 other person
Did Zion play against FSU when they one on the buzzer beater shot? I think this one will be close and can go either way.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nickynooch
simmy2637 said:
Did Zion play against FSU when they one on the buzzer beater shot? I think this one will be close and can go either way.
Click to expand...

He played the first half. In that game (speaking just about that specific game) they looked better without him. Less reliant on one guy and reddish, Jones, and RJ all stepped up with fantastic performances.
 
I’d rather play duke than UNC. We always end up trying to run with UNC. We are going to have to keep hitting some of the contested shots we’ve made in the last couple games and shoot well from 3.
 
FSU can’t possibly win. Duke is littered with McDonald’s AA’s even the backups. They have the best player in the nation. FSU is made up of players nobody wanted. Can’t even outrecruit the lowly gaters. No chance.
 
GE Nole said:
What exactly do you mean by “FSU’s fundamentals are worse than their record”?

FSU gives up the fewest steals in the conference. FSU has a lower overall turnover rate in conference play than Duke. FSU shoots FTs at over 73% as a team. FSU’s defensive fundamentals are what allows them to lead the league in 2pt FG% defense.

So which fundamentals do you mean? Does Duke also have fundamentals worse than their record? What about Kentucky? Kentucky gives up more steals than FSU and has a worse overall turnover rate in conference play than FSU.
Click to expand...

Laughing Whoa, settle down there, Tommy DeVito:

63264995.jpg


Fundamentals is a term that is colloquially used to mean the underlying statistical profile, not Hoosiers stuff. FSU is between 14-16 in most stats-based profiles (KenPom, Sargarin, BPI) below or around teams with worse records (Wisconsin, Auburn, KU, Virginia Tech, Villanova), and generally a bit higher in human rankings (AP, Coaches), and that delta will increase as human polls take into account the ACC Tournament, which is already in most (if not all) computer rankings. Or, put another way, they've outperformed their expected win-loss, which is almost always the result of a better than expected record in close games. But Leonard Hamilton seems to consistently (and ridiculously) outperform expectations in close games, as someone pointed out in another thread. So *shrug emoji.wtf*
 
Big_Blue79 said:
Laughing Whoa, settle down there, Tommy DeVito:

63264995.jpg


Fundamentals is a term that is colloquially used to mean the underlying statistical profile, not Hoosiers stuff. FSU is between 14-16 in most stats-based profiles (KenPom, Sargarin, BPI) below or around teams with worse records (Wisconsin, Auburn, KU, Virginia Tech, Villanova), and generally a bit higher in human rankings (AP, Coaches), and that delta will increase as human polls take into account the ACC Tournament, which is already in most (if not all) computer rankings. Or, put another way, they've outperformed their expected win-loss, which is almost always the result of a better than expected record in close games. But Leonard Hamilton seems to consistently (and ridiculously) outperform expectations in close games, as someone pointed out in another thread. So *shrug emoji.wtf*
Click to expand...

Okay fair enough. Outperforming vs expected record is very different in my mind than outperforming vs fundamentals.

But with Ham there’s actually a legit reason. FSU doesn’t build its depth by accident. It’s the strategy we use to win. Our players 1-5 just can’t compete with the Duke’s and the UNC’s 1-5. We only have 3 top 100 recruits. However, our 1-10 is often better than other teams 1-10 and we like to get teams into a war of attrition. Especially at home. It’s why we have the best home record in the last few years.

But, the catch is, in order to build that depth you have to be committed to playing your bench in meaningful minutes from game 1. Otherwise they aren’t ready to step in when you need a 3 star freshman Devin Vassell to hit the game tying 3 against VT, or your back up PG David Nichols takes over the game against UVA. So what happens is, we often don’t beat the scrubs on our schedule by as much as the computers would like because we are playing deep bench guys major minutes in the first half. This results in our adjusted efficiency numbers being lower than what one might expect for our record.

Basically, I think there’s a logical reason why it’s the inverse of what you’re saying.
 
GE Nole said:
Okay fair enough. Outperforming vs expected record is very different in my mind than outperforming vs fundamentals.

But with Ham there’s actually a legit reason. FSU doesn’t build its depth by accident. It’s the strategy we use to win. Our players 1-5 just can’t compete with the Duke’s and the UNC’s 1-5. We only have 3 top 100 recruits. However, our 1-10 is often better than other teams 1-10 and we like to get teams into a war of attrition. Especially at home. It’s why we have the best home record in the last few years.

But, the catch is, in order to build that depth you have to be committed to playing your bench in meaningful minutes from game 1. Otherwise they aren’t ready to step in when you need a 3 star freshman Devin Vassell to hit the game tying 3 against VT, or your back up PG David Nichols takes over the game against UVA. So what happens is, we often don’t beat the scrubs on our schedule by as much as the computers would like because we are playing deep bench guys major minutes in the first half. This results in our adjusted efficiency numbers being lower than what one might expect for our record.

Basically, I think there’s a logical reason why it’s the inverse of what you’re saying.
Click to expand...

Right. It seems to be a feature for FSU, not a bug.
 
jhmossy said:
He actually balled out against us in Raleigh.
Click to expand...
He’s had a few good ones it’s just become the norm that he gets regulated to the bench with foul trouble. Really looking forward to Manny Bates coming in and adding a little depth in the frontcourt.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jhmossy
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

GE Nole

FSU vs UF

Replies
4
Views
773
College Basketball Board
GE Nole
GE Nole
ABVolsFan92

Lets talk UT vs Florida next tuesday....

Replies
39
Views
1K
College Basketball Board
mcnicKY91
M
rdgtr

Florida (11-0) is 4-0 in the ACC, Declared as 2024 ACC Champions!

Replies
33
Views
890
College Basketball Board
GE Nole
GE Nole
bignish

Duke vs UNC

Replies
130
Views
6K
College Basketball Board
Random UK Fan
Random UK Fan
WeAreDePaul

Sports card collecting

Replies
17
Views
2K
College Basketball Board
arbitrageagent
arbitrageagent
ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back